From the analyst meeting with the executives of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP), the management clarified the business direction and performance outlook for the second half of the year, as well as the operation plan for next year.
The management stated that the overall industry is still supported by sustained favorable refining margins, despite high volatility in crude oil prices. The company confirmed it is maintaining tight risk management alongside cost control and efficiency improvements in production.
Additionally, TOP provided an update on key investment projects that will strengthen production capabilities and increase the proportion of high-value products in the future, leading to more stable revenue and profits. The executives emphasized confidence in TOP’s strong financial position, which supports long-term growth and allows for rapid strategic adjustments in line with the swiftly changing energy market, focusing on delivering consistent value to shareholders.
Analysts from Krungsri Securities gave a positive view on the prospects for TOP after executives reaffirmed targets to close deals with all contractors for the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) within the first quarter of 2026 and to commence commercial operation (COD) of all units as planned within the third quarter of 2028. The company revealed that the incremental budget of USD 1,776 million remains sufficient for operations, with more detail to be shared upon completion of contractor selection.
Refining margin in Q4 2025 is expected to show clear recovery as the refinery returns to full operation after a major maintenance shutdown, with further support from unusually high spreads (price differences) of middle distillates. The refinery has ramped up operating rates to about 112-114%, expected to enhance production efficiency and increase yield of high-return products. Meanwhile, unplanned shutdowns at overseas refineries and sanctions on Russian oil continue to tighten global supply through early 2026.
It is anticipated that the 2026 refining margin will increase to an average of approximately USD 5.8 per barrel, supported by the reactivation of the single point mooring (SPM) facility in the first half of next year, helping to lower ship-to-ship transfer costs by about USD 0.5 per barrel. Despite ongoing pressure on the petrochemical business in 2026 due to substantial new supply, the main business will benefit from a clear recovery trend, resulting in a generally positive outlook.
Analysts maintain a “Buy” recommendation with a 2026 target price of THB 37.25, noting further upside if incremental costs for the CFP are less than expected: for every 5% lower, share value increases by another THB 1.30. Profits in 2026 are forecast to soar 117% year-on-year, driven by sustained high refining margins and no planned major shutdowns.
According to Daol Securities (Thailand), TOP’s management expects the crack spread (crack spread) to remain elevated at least through Q1 2026 due to tight oil supply and increased winter demand, with further support from projected refinery closures in Western countries. However, the petrochemical business is still pressured by abundant new capacity in 2026, weakening price spreads in aromatics and olefins categories.
The Clean Fuel Project (CFP) is progressing as planned, aiming for full commercial operation in Q3 2028, with all 19 main contractors to be appointed by the end of 2025 and complete project site access in Q1 2026. Thai Oil also indicated that lease and lease-back (L&LB) transactions bolster liquidity by over THB 18.2 billion, thus maintaining its credit rating in preparation for the issuance of perpetual bonds.
Daol Securities maintains a 2025 net profit target at THB 13.8 billion, a 38% increase from last year, with a “Buy” recommendation and a target price of THB 40.
Land and Houses Securities (LHSEC) projects that TOP’s performance will remain strong through Q4 2025 to early 2026, supported by sustained high Singapore Gross Refining Margins (SG GRM) and the company’s continued progress in major projects and deleveraging efforts. LHSEC also retains a “Buy” rating with a target price of THB 44.
Recent average refining margin in Q4 2025 reached USD 9.3 per barrel, an increase of 115% from the previous quarter, attributed to tighter oil supply from geopolitical events, refinery maintenance shutdowns in many regions, and increased winter demand. TOP views this positive environment as likely to continue at least into early next year.
TOP’s share price has risen more slowly than peers, particularly Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC), suggesting remaining investment upside. A “Buy” recommendation and a target price of THB 44 are reiterated. Next year’s key positives include continued high refining margins, stronger financial position from debt reduction, and long-term benefits from the CFP, while risks remain from global economic conditions, volatile oil prices, and possible delays in project execution.
