On Tuesday at 10:50 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) rose by 5.71% or THB 1.50 to THB 27.75, with a trading value of THB 299.33 million.
Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) grew by 5.93% or THB 0.35 to THB 6.25, with a trading value of THB 107.59 million.
Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) gained 5.37% or THB 2.00 to THB 39.25, with a trading value of THB 787.68 million.
IRPC Public Company Limited (SET: IRPC) advanced by 2.97% or THB 0.03 to THB 1.04, with a trading value of THB 42.76 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) noted that the Singapore Gross Refining Margin (SG GRM) rose 10% week-on-week, buoyed by freight rates normalizing and offsetting a 3% weekly decline in gasoline spreads, which faced downward pressure as U.S. demand softened and gasoline inventories increased by 4% week-on-week.
The brokerage maintains its outlook for January 2026, expecting the Singapore Refining Margin to decline month-on-month and noting that tighter global supply is easing as more refineries worldwide come back online after maintenance, while new capacity of 0.2 million barrels per day is coming to market.
Krungsri continues to favor the refining sector as the most attractive for the fourth quarter of 2025, forecasting a marked rebound in refining margins quarter-on-quarter.
Meanwhile, DAOL Securities (Thailand) stated that Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, announced an official selling price (OSP) reduction for oil sold to Asian buyers for February 2026—its third consecutive monthly cut—amid ongoing signals of market oversupply.
The premium for Arab Light crude was reduced to $0.3 per barrel for February delivery, down from $0.6 per barrel in January, following OPEC+’s continued decision from November 2025 to halt output increases through the first quarter of 2026.
DAOL views the price cut as slightly positive for the refinery sector, given the resulting lower feedstock costs, particularly benefiting Thai refiners predominantly sourcing Middle Eastern crude, such as SPRC, TOP, and IRPC.
DAOL maintains its average Dubai crude forecast at $67.0 per barrel for 2026, down from $68.4 per barrel in 2025, and retains a ‘Market Weight’ investment stance on the sector. The brokerage’s top stock picks remain TOP, with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of THB 40.00, and SPRC, also rated ‘Buy’ with a target price of THB 6.50.
