Mr. Piriyaphon Kongwanich, Director of Fundamental Analysis at Bualuang Securities, stated that the combined net profit of Thai listed companies in 3Q25 stood at THB 257 billion, representing 30% YoY growth but a 24% QoQ decrease. Nevertheless, this performance exceeded market expectations. The main supporting factors included rising revenues from mobile and internet services, as well as profit-sharing and new production capacity recognition from Gulf Development PCL (SET: GULF).
Key drivers emerged from businesses rebounding in line with improved consumption behaviors and cost structures, including:
- Telecommunications: Mobile and internet service revenues continued to grow, boosting major players such as Advanced Info Service PCL (SET: ADVANC).
- Energy/Power Plants: Improved refining margins and continued profit growth at GULF due to its share of ADVANC’s revenues, despite upstream energy businesses being pressured by declining energy prices.
- Financial Sector: The auto hire-purchase business rebounded from increased lending, with stable NPLs, though the AMC industry remained under pressure from weak cash collection.
- Banking Sector: Higher investment income, reduced operating expenses, and declining credit costs helped profits recover.
- Retail Sector: IT products, particularly strong Apple sales, supported players like Com7 PCL (SET: COM7), while department stores with rental income such as Central Pattana PCL (SET: CPN) saw continued rental growth. CP ALL PCL (SET: CPALL) benefited from rising ready-to-eat food sales. CP Extra PCL (SET: CPAXT) remained pressured by competition from Lotus’s, while wholesale businesses like Makro continued to grow.
- Hotel Sector: Minor International PCL (SET: MINT) benefited from lower interest costs, and Central Plaza Hotel PCL (SET: CENTEL) was supported by its food business—even though new hotels in the Maldives were still operating at a loss.
The recommended investment strategy is to select stocks whose 3Q profit and revenue exceed expectations by more than 5%, have not experienced sharp revenue contraction, show 4Q earnings growth or recovery from the previous quarter, have not faced significant downward earnings revisions in the past three months, and have clear positive catalysts.
Stocks expected to deliver outstanding profit growth in 4Q through to 2026 include:
- CPALL: Continued growth in ready-to-eat food sales supports both revenue and margin.
- COM7: Core profit forecast to grow 5-7% YoY, supported by robust Apple sales.
- Bumrungrad Hospital PCL (SET: BH): Continuous increase in international patients.
- ADVANC: Mobile and broadband ARPU expected to grow 4% YoY, supporting service revenue.
- WHA Utilities and Power PCL (SET: WHAUP): Increased demand for electricity and water in industrial estates, with new production capacity supporting profit growth.
- CPN: 4Q25 profit projected to increase both YoY and QoQ, with full-quarter recognition of Central Park revenues, the launch of Central Krabi, more residential project transfers, and power cost reductions by 6% YoY and 1% QoQ.
- CENTEL: Robust hotel bookings in Thailand, the Maldives, Dubai, and Japan, with stable restaurant business despite negative SSS in QSR.
Top stock picks for 2026 are those to buy on weakness, such as:
- i-Tail Corporation PCL (SET: ITC): Premium pet food sales growth, profits bolstered by a weaker baht.
- PTT Global Chemical PCL (SET: PTTGC): Passed its lowest point, with 3Q–4Q serving as the base before a 2026 recovery as petrochemical spreads improve with the global economy.
- The Siam Cement PCL (SET: SCC): Profits remain pressured but are expected to begin recovering at the end of 4Q into 2026.
