Mr. Sombat Narawutthichai, Secretary General of the Investment Analysts Association (IAA), stated for 2026, most securities analysts recommend overweighting investments in the retail, food and beverage, banking, tourism, healthcare, technology, and communication sectors, while advising underweighting energy and petrochemical stocks, as well as electronic components.
For outstanding stocks that are jointly recommended by analysts from at least five companies, they include Advanced Info Service PCL (SET: ADVANC), CP All PCL (SET: CPALL), Gulf Development PCL (SET: GULF), Krung Thai Bank PCL (SET: KTB), and Muangthai Capital PCL (SET: MTC).
Mr. Sombat further stated that a survey of opinions from 24 analysts and mutual fund managers found that the target level for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index at the end of 2026 is likely to reach 1,389 points, with a yearly range of 1,301–1,400 points.
Key factors that analysts are closely watching in 1Q26 include domestic politics, specifically the outcome of the election and clarity regarding the formation of a new government, as well as signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
For positive investment drivers through year-end, the top influence is the domestic interest rate direction, followed by U.S. interest rate direction and local political factors. On the negative side are the domestic economy, overseas political factors, and the global economy.
Concerning the Bank of Thailand’s policy interest rate at the end of 2026, 72.73% of analysts expect a cut to 1%, while 13.64% see a possible decrease to 0.75%, and 13.64% expect it to remain at 1.25% (currently 1.25% as of January 6).
Mr. Sombat also suggested that for 2026 portfolio allocation: 9.17% should be in cash and short-term deposits, 21.75% in fixed income funds, 30.63% in foreign equities or foreign equity funds, 19.92% in Thai equities or Thai equity funds, 10.46% in gold, 7.63% in property funds/REIT, and 0.46% in digital assets.
For foreign investments, U.S. fixed income funds, the AI-Technology and Healthcare sectors, as well as Selective Asia strategies focusing on China, Hong Kong, India, and Japan, are recommended.
Mr. Nattapol Kamthakrua, Assistant Managing Director, Investment Research at Yuanta Securities (Thailand), stated that this year, there is a positive outlook for the SET Index due to the increasingly stable cash flows of listed companies, enabling dividend payments and attractive share prices. Corporate governance is improving, with fewer violations, and the JUMP+ project is expected to help restore confidence, setting the SET target at 1,400 points for this year.
Listed companies in Thailand maintain top dividend yields in the ASEAN stock market, second only to Singapore in 2025. The high dividend outlook continues for 2026 and is expected to attract THB 30–40 billion in foreign investment. If the index is at 1,300 points, the average dividend yield is about 4.1%. If the index is at 1,200 points, the yield will be about 4.5%.
Additionally, listed companies now have operating cash flow of about THB 2 trillion, with no new investments due to challenging economic conditions, resulting in more funds being returned to shareholders through dividends. The current payout ratio is about 60%, and the average dividend yield exceeds 4.5%. The banking sector offers the highest dividends, with major banks paying an average of 6%.
Nevertheless, the banking, communication, and energy sectors are still expected to have the highest dividend yields, collectively accounting for about 50% of total market profits. These three sectors are highly liquid, allowing foreign investors to enter and exit easily.
In terms of the election and new government formation, it is expected that foreign event-driven funds will flow into the market by about THB 30–40 billion. If a multi-party coalition forms, the index could rise by 3%; if there are fewer coalition partners, the index may rise by up to 5%.
