Maybank Securities (Thailand) has maintained a ‘Buy’ recommendation for Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: MOSHI) and raised the target price to THB 52, up by 2% following an earnings forecast revision that reflects a stronger-than-expected gross margin.
The broker now expects robust earnings for 4Q25, driven by impressive gross margin and persistent store expansion. While same-store sales growth (SSSG) is projected to decline, with 4Q25 SSSG forecast at -6%, new product launches, store renovations, and the addition of new stores are anticipated to support continued earnings growth. Notably, MOSHI reported SSSG in October at -9% due to a strong comparative base, but early November figures have turned slightly positive.
Maybank has upgraded its earnings forecasts for 2025-27 by 4%, 3%, and 3%, respectively, acknowledging the positive impact of rising retail store sales, a higher proportion of imported products, and cost efficiencies from greater sales volume. The company aims to open 39 new stores in 2025 and 35 more in 2026. This supports the analyst’s net profit growth forecast of 23% and 16% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, resulting in an industry-leading earnings CAGR of 18.4% from 2024 to 2027.
Despite increased SG&A expenses and softer SSSG, wider gross margin—boosted by a larger share of imported products and new products—should offset these headwinds. The company’s financial position is strong, while management is also considering increasing its dividend payout ratio, currently at 40%.
Trading at 14.8x 2026 P/E, which is two standard deviations below its 3-year average, MOSHI is seen as deserving of a premium valuation due to its stand-out earnings growth and expected return on equity (ROE) of 25.3%, well above the sector average of 15.8%. Maybank continues to see MOSHI as well-positioned for sustained growth and premium market valuation.
