Hatyai district in Songkhla Province, Thailand, is experiencing a significant flood event, sparking concerns about potential disruptions to Thailand’s vital tourism sector. However, Finansia Syrus Securities has assessed the situation and anticipates only a limited short-term impact on international tourist arrivals, primarily affecting visitors from Malaysia who travel via land through Sadao and Padang Besar border checkpoints.
According to Finansia Syrus, the adverse effects are expected to persist for approximately two weeks. The research highlights that Malaysian travelers represent a substantial portion of southern border crossings, with projections indicating 4.8 million Malaysian tourists entering Thailand in 2025, and about 70% of them using land routes.
Based on these figures—and referencing Finansia Syrus’s own forecasts—the flood’s impact is estimated to reduce overall international tourist arrivals in 2025 by just 0.4%. Their full-year forecast projects 33.37 million foreign visitors for 2025, which is a 6% year-on-year decline. For the fourth quarter, the flood could trim visitor arrivals by about 1.4% out of an anticipated 9.25 million international tourists, which nonetheless reflects a 24% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 2% year-on-year decrease.
As for the hospitality sector, the analysis centers on two Stock Exchange of Thailand-listed hotel operators: Erawan Group (SET: ERW) and Central Plaza Hotel (SET: CENTEL). ERW’s Hop Inn brand operates three properties in Hatyai and Songkhla City, totaling 235 rooms. This represents 4% of Hop Inn Thailand’s total capacity and around 0.5% of ERW’s annual revenue. CENTEL, meanwhile, has one hotel in Hatyai—Centara Hatyai—which accounts for 4% of the company’s wholly-owned inventory and is estimated to contribute between 1% and 1.5% of full-year revenues.
Given these proportions, Finansia Syrus concludes that the flood’s negative effects on listed hotel financials will likely be marginal.
