As per an analysis by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS), Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: CHG) reported a 35% year-on-year drop in core profit for 3Q25, totaling THB 272 million, with the result being in line with both the analyst’s and market expectations.
The decline primarily stemmed from the absence of extra Social Security Office (SSO) gains related to chronic disease treatments, which contributed THB 98 million in 3Q24, as well as fewer Gastric Sleeve surgery cases this year.
Excluding this one-off SSO item, core profit would have declined by 20% year-on-year. Total revenue decreased by 7% year-on-year, with SSO revenue dropping by 25% and NHSO revenue falling by 18% due to a reversal of Ucep Covid revenue.
General patient revenue increased 3% year-on-year, supported by strong outpatient department (OPD) results and robust international patient inflows. Meanwhile, EBITDA margin slipped to 23% from 28% in 3Q24, or 25% excluding the SSO one-off.
Business operations are expected to improve in 4Q25. Management noted that while general patient revenue lagged earlier in the quarter due to the absence of an influenza outbreak in July and August, revenue in September saw a 10% year-on-year uptick. The company set its sights on mid- to high-single-digit year-on-year growth in 4Q general patient revenue.
For 2025, CHG targets flat overall revenue, implying a 9% year-on-year increase for 4Q. Profits for the year are forecast to come in slightly above 2024 levels, matching analyst estimates and indicating 4Q profit could exceed THB 260 million—a dramatic 182% year-on-year increase.
Notably, CHG has submitted 60 gastric surgery cases for SSO approval, with six cases approved thus far. Patients unwilling to wait for SSO approval have opted for self-pay, leading to a doubling of self-pay gastric surgeries to 50–60 cases monthly.
Combined, gastric surgery volumes could reach nearly 100 cases per month, compared to 140 per month in 2024. The losses at CHG Mae Sot narrowed to THB 8 million in 3Q from 13 million in 2Q, with breakeven achieved in September and a potential turnaround expected in 4Q25.
Moreover, CHG Mae Sot, which already operates its own heart center, will also manage the Heart Center at Mae Sot Hospital from December 2025, making CHG the sole provider for cardiac cases in the area.
Following these, Kiatnakin maintains its forecast and reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating for CHG, with a target price of THB 2.20 per share, as the current share price is believed to already reflect recent weaknesses. With expected earnings growth resuming from 4Q25, CHG is seen as attractively valued, currently trading at 14x 2026 P/E compared to a forward historical average of 32x.
