According to Pi Securities, following Thailand’s Prime Minister’s announcement to dissolve the parliament, which triggered the need for a general election to take place within 45 to 60 days, the analyst anticipates that polling will likely occur in the latter part of the first week of February 2026.
Until a new administration is formed, the incumbent government will remain as caretaker, but will be restricted from introducing new long-term initiatives, particularly those that extend into the mandate of the incoming government. This limitation may result in the suspension of previously considered policies, such as the TISA program, until a new finance minister is appointed.
In the near term, market participants are expected to focus on political uncertainty, which could prompt profit-taking in the stock market. Nonetheless, this phase is widely seen as temporary, with expectations that investors will soon shift attention to potential stimulus measures from the new government.
Historically, the Thai stock market tends to rally ahead of elections, especially in sectors such as retail and telecommunications. Short-term market selloffs triggered by election-related volatility are viewed by analysts as opportunities for accumulation in these key sectors. Banking stocks, offering attractive dividends and low valuations, also remain in favor.
Maybank Securities (Thailand) noted that the parliament dissolution was a preemptive move to forestall a no-confidence motion by the opposition and stemmed from ongoing disagreements over constitutional amendments related to Senate powers.
During the caretaker period, the Prime Minister and the existing cabinet will continue in office but with limited authority, unable to approve new budget commitments. Government stimulus measures, including the Half-Half co-payment Phase 2, TISA, the buyback of mass transit concessions, U.S. tariff negotiations, and new public project tenders, are all at risk of delay.
Historical data from previous dissolutions since 1992 show the SET Index typically declines immediately after such announcements, with an average downside of 6.15%, which would correspond to the index dropping to around 1,176 points. However, as the market already anticipated a caretaker administration, the current downturn is unlikely to be as severe as past episodes.
The support levels are seen in the 1,200–1,230 point range, representing a 2026 PER estimate of 13.2 times, which is below the average -1S.D.—a level analysts view as a buying opportunity. In the near term, the recommendation is to prioritize defensive and high-dividend stocks in sectors such as hospitals (BH, PR9), ICT (TRUE, ADVANC), and high-yield banks (BBL, TTB). Once the electoral timeline becomes clearer and the political environment settles, attention should shift to finance, ICT, retail, and banking sectors as the election rally develops.
Krungthai XSpring Securities also commented that an early election could expedite the parliamentary process, reducing the risk of delay in passing the 2027 fiscal budget. Under the prior schedule, the election was expected on March 29, 2026, potentially delaying the new budget by about two months.
However, with the parliament now set to dissolve in mid-December 2025 and elections anticipated in February 2026—possibly by February 8—any budget delays may only last half a month to one month.
Despite near-term volatility caused by the caretaker government’s limited stimulus capacity, analysts believe markets will soon focus on the upcoming election and budget deliberation. As a result, any volatility is expected to be short-lived. The brokerage firm recommends accumulating stocks on pullbacks, using an earnings yield gap of 6%—equivalent to an index level of 1,236 points—as a buying benchmark, and to continue accumulating if the market falls below this level.
