Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) projects that the profitability of Thai food processors will normalize in 2026 following a turbulent 2025. The brokerage firm expects the sector to see an easing of the exceptionally high earnings reported in 2025, particularly among swine and broiler operators, as market conditions revert toward historical averages.
For swine operators such as Betagro (BTG) and Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF), the domestic swine price is forecast to decline by 8% to THB 68 per kilogram in 2026. Although domestic raw material costs are expected to drop slightly due to lower soybean meal and corn prices, profitability should also decrease, reflecting a return to typical levels.
In Vietnam, swine prices are seen declining by 3%, with profitability remaining strong, while in China, a 14% fall in swine prices is anticipated, suggesting challenging operating conditions, with prices below breakeven for various operators.
Broiler operators are expected to see flat profitability domestically in 2026, with GFPT’s export business being anticipated to face declining earnings due to increased competition from Brazil.
Among seafood and pet food exporters, i-Tail Corporation (ITC) is expected to post stronger earnings growth than Thai Union (TU) in 2026. This is despite a forecast 6% decrease in the tuna price, which would normally benefit seafood exporters, as the full-year impact of a higher U.S. tariff is expected to outweigh these gains.
Following these, the rating of ITC has been upgraded to ‘Buy,’ with a target price of THB 19.6 per share, and the stock is KKPS’ top pick for 2026, mainly due to strong expected earnings growth from new customer acquisitions and increasing orders from major clients, its valuation discount relative to peers, and an attractive yield.
GFPT remains the only ‘Buy’ recommendation among livestock companies, with a target price of THB 13.1 per share, thanks to attractive valuation, resilience outlook, and upside potential from capital management improvements.
BTG and CPF are rated ‘Neutral,’ with target prices of THB 19.2 and THB 22.2, respectively, as their weak outlook is likely already factored into share prices, while share buybacks should lend support.
Additionally, TU is also rated ‘Neutral,’ with a target price of THB 13.2, trading in line with global peers.
