Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) has increased its earnings projections for Thai Foods Group PCL (SET: TFG) for both 2025 and 2026, raising estimates by 3% and 8% respectively, on the back of a stronger-than-expected nine-month performance in 2025 and a solid outlook for the following year. The broker has also lifted its price objective to THB 9.0 from THB 8.5.
Despite a forecasted 41% year-on-year decline in earnings growth for 2026, KKPS remains confident in TFG’s longer-term structural growth trajectory, which it attributes to anticipated momentum in the retail segment, continued operation in Vietnam, and strength in broiler exports. These drivers are expected to support compound annual sales growth of 11% over 2025-2027.
TFG’s valuation continues to trade at a discount to peers despite a superior business model and higher profitability ratios, leading KKPS to reiterate its ‘Buy’ call on attractive valuations.
For 2026, TFG management has outlined revenue growth guidance in the range of 10-15%, with KKPS forecasting 13%. Retail business is anticipated to be a key engine, with projected sales growth of 30%. Gross margin is expected at 15% according to the company, slightly above KKPS’ forecast of 14%, while SG&A-to-sales ratio is guided at 7%, against the 7.5% predicted by the analyst.
TFG expects swine prices in Thailand to remain stable at THB 65-70 per kilogram and in Vietnam between VND 55,000 and VND 60,000 per kilogram. The company has secured lower raw material prices through the first half of 2026, which should reduce its raw material costs by 3-5% next year.
KKPS believe balanced supply and demand conditions will result in a modest 8% decline in domestic swine prices to THB 68 per kg for 2026, a level that remains above the break-even point for large producers (THB 55-60 per kg). Raw material costs are also set to edge down, a shift that is likely to bring profitability for swine operators, including TFG, back in line with historical norms. In Vietnam, average swine prices are forecast to ease 3% to VND 60,000 per kg—still well above the break-even of VND 45,000 per kg—supporting continued healthy margins.
TFG is pushing forward with an aggressive retail expansion, aiming to increase its store count to 850 by end-2026, up 38% from 617 outlets in 2025. The company targets same-store sales growth of 10% and expects rebate income to double to THB 600-800 million, fueled by a greater proportion of non-TFG product sales. These initiatives are expected to confer two main advantages: enhanced sales channels should facilitate higher average selling prices and faster market share gains across the upstream business, while an improved cash conversion cycle could present upside to current dividend payout expectations.
