Krungsri Securities (KSS) wrote in an analysis, forecasting that Krungthai Card Public Company Limited (SET: KTC) will post a 4Q25 net profit of THB 1.92 billion, representing a 2% increase year-on-year. This is driven primarily by a 14% year-on-year decrease in expected credit loss (ECL) due to lower write-offs.
However, net profit is expected to decrease by 2% quarter-on-quarter as operating expenses rise 3% from increased marketing and IT spending, while ECL grows 5% amid uncertainties in economic recovery. Gross non-performing loans (NPLs) are projected to rise 2% quarter-on-quarter, with the NPL ratio holding steady at 1.80% from the previous quarter.
KTC’s total loans are expected to grow 5% quarter-on-quarter, or 1% year-to-date, supported by higher credit card loans during the year-end festive season. Bad debt recovery is estimated to rise 1% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting the company’s effective collection strategies.
Looking ahead, the brokerage firm projects that KTC’s net profit in 2026 will rise 6% year-on-year, supported by net interest margin (NIM) expansion as borrowing costs decline in a lower interest rate environment. The policy rate is expected to reach 1.0% in the first half of 2026.
Meanwhile, the impact of the government’s “Close Debt, Move Forward” program remains uncertain, as financial institutions have not yet been able to fully assess its implications.
Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on KTC with a 2026 target price of THB 42 per share, reaffirming it as a top-pick stock in the consumer finance sector, alongside Muangthai Capital (MTC), which is also rated ‘Buy,’ with a target price of THB 58 per share.
The reasons include a strong balance sheet highlighted by a high coverage ratio of around 430%, an attractive dividend yield forecasted at 5%, benefits from declining interest rates, a record net profit expected in 2025, and revenue upside from a developing insurance sales business.
