Daol Securities (Thailand) maintains a positive outlook on PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (SET: OR), expecting that average domestic oil sales volume will recover in 4Q25 due to an increased number of holidays, which should help partially offset the impact from slower average gross profit per litre (GP/litre).
Meanwhile, the securities company noted that international oil sales volumes are likely to remain low, mainly due to declining sales in Cambodia, a result of inter-country conflict. It is expected that GP/litre in 4Q25 will still increase year-on-year but decrease quarter-on-quarter, following the downward trend of retail diesel prices.
Regarding the new 5-year business plan, the company remains focused on investment in Mobility business, while reducing investment in Lifestyle and Global businesses. Nevertheless, OR still has reserves for merger and acquisition (M&A) plans, which Daol Securities forecasted the company is likely to execute in 2026.
The securities company maintains its net profit forecast at THB 10.8 billion for both 2025 and 2026, an increase from the net profit of THB 7.7 billion in 2024. Key assumptions include a higher level of GP/litre, improved EBITDA margin in the Lifestyle business, and reduced financial costs.
Therefore, Daol Securities maintains its “BUY” recommendation on OR shares with a target price of THB 16.00 per share.
