Mr. Kitpon Praipaisarnkit, Senior Executive Vice President at UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand), stated that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index closed the morning session slightly higher by 0.29%, or 3.58 points, at 1,253.65 points, in line with regional markets, after the release of U.S. inflation data that was lower than expected. This has given investors hope that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) could further cut interest rates.
However, although rates might decline further, they are approaching the end of the downward trend. It is expected that the Fed will cut rates another 2–3 times, while Thailand’s interest rates are expected to be cut one more time. The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that the rate-cutting cycle is also likely to end soon for the bloc.
These conditions indicate that there is not much room for more cuts going forward, and the opportunity for financial costs to decrease from current levels is limited. This impacts the finance sector, which fell yesterday due to limited space for financial cost to be lowered. Additionally, a slowdown in loan growth and the overall economy could lead to concerns over debt collection, creating further pressure on the finance group.
For the banking sector, in the short term, stock prices could continue to rise since the pressure from narrowing interest rate spreads is easing, with the downward trend in rates nearing completion. However, the banking sector has not yet factored in the impact of slower economic growth in the next period. After the release of earnings results, there may be a reflection of this slower economic growth, especially in the first half of 2026.
As for the afternoon outlook, the index is expected to be volatile. This morning, the index dropped below the critical support level at 1,250 points but rebounded. The support range is set at 1,250 points, with the next support at 1,230 points, and the resistance at 1,260 points, with the next resistance at 1,280 points.
The top five securities by trading value in the morning session are as follows:
- Krungthai Bank PCL (SET: KTB): Trading value THB 1.43 billion, closed at THB 29.00 per share, down THB 0.50 or 1.69%.
- Delta Electronics (Thailand) PCL (SET: DELTA): Trading value THB 1.09 billion, closed at THB 169.50 per share, up THB 1.50 or 0.89%.
- PTT PCL (SET: PTT): Trading value THB 1.04 billion, closed at THB 31.50 per share, up THB 0.25 or 0.80%.
- Airports of Thailand PCL (SET: AOT): Trading value THB 832.56 million, closed at THB 54.00 per share, down THB 1.00 or 1.82%.
- Kasikornbank PCL (SET: KBANK): Trading value THB 795.61 million, closed at THB 195.50 per share, down THB 1.50 or 0.76%.
