On Friday at 3:35 PM (Bangkok time), the share price of Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BCH) added 3.96% or THB 0.40 to THB 10.50, with a trading value of THB 124.07 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) noted that the government of Kuwait has completed payment of THB 246 million for BCH regarding the treatment of Kuwaiti welfare patients. This resolution removes any lingering risks associated with this issue for the company.
The brokerage expects that, in the fourth quarter of 2025, BCH may be able to reverse provisions previously set aside for these receivables, estimated at around 3% of the payment amount.
In 4Q25, Krungsri forecasts BCH to post a normalized profit of THB 350 million, an increase of 121% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter. This improvement is underpinned by projected revenue growth of 9% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter.
Additionally, BCH will not face the same downward adjustment to social security-related reimbursement for cases with a Relative Weight (RW) greater than 2, as occurred in the fourth quarter of 2024. As a result, the gross margin is expected to reach 28%, up from 22.8% in the same period last year and 27.6% in the previous quarter. Notably, this earnings estimate does not yet factor in any provision reversals from the Kuwaiti payment.
Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation for BCH, highlighting the company alongside BDMS (Buy, Target price THB 29) as a top healthcare sector pick. The firm cites expectations that BCH’s earnings have already passed their low point and forecasts stronger net profit growth of 9% year-on-year in 2026, surpassing the sector average, which is projected at 6% year-on-year.
Additional catalysts for BCH include the possibility of a higher-than-expected 2025 dividend—potentially above THB 0.31 per share—and the chance of resuming treatment for Kuwaiti welfare patients next year.
