Thailand’s rice exports are expected to decline to 7 million metric tons in 2026, down from as much as 8 million tons in 2025, as baht appreciation undermines the country’s ability to compete with India’s abundant supply, the Commerce Ministry announced on Friday, December 26.
The Thai baht has strengthened 10.5% against the US dollar so far this year, making it the second-best performing currency in Asia and reaching its highest level against the dollar in over four years.
The baht’s robust performance has added pressure on Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which is already contending with US tariffs, elevated household debt, a border dispute with Cambodia, and political uncertainty ahead of elections scheduled for early February.
The impending government will face the challenge of addressing falling rice prices for farmers, who earlier in the year called for increased state support.
Arada Fuangtong, head of the foreign trade department, stated at a press conference that Thailand’s rice shipments next year are likely to face competitive pressures due to pricing. She noted that currently, the baht is 10–20% stronger than its competitors.
Despite these headwinds, Arada noted Thailand is set to maintain a rice export deal with China for 500,000 tons, supported by strong bilateral relations. Additionally, in November, Thailand agreed to supply up to 100,000 tons of rice to Singapore over five years.
For 2025, rice exports are projected to reach between 7.88 and 8 million tons, surpassing the 7.5 million target, bolstered by robust demand toward year-end, according to Arada. However, this still lags behind the nearly 10 million tons shipped last year, when Thailand was the world’s second-largest rice exporter after India.
Over the first eleven months of 2025, rice exports were down 21% year-on-year to 7.3 million tons, with export values dropping 30.3%. This decline was attributed to higher global supplies, significant releases from India’s rice reserves, and a suspension of rice imports by the Philippines. Arada also cited lower prices and the baht’s strength as factors weighing on export values.
