Thai hospital operators are positioned for renewed growth, as Krungsri Securities (KSS) expects a rebound in fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, driven by a surge in influenza cases and continued strength in the tourism sector.
According to the Department of Disease Control, the number of influenza patients in 4Q25 reached 494,549—nearly quadruple the 103,177 recorded in the same period last year, and up 1.8 times from the previous quarter.
The outbreak was especially acute in October and November, leading to the highest patient numbers for the year. The hardest-hit provinces included Phuket, Chonburi, Bangkok, Rayong, Nonthaburi, Samut Prakan, Nakhon Pathom, Lamphun, Chanthaburi, and Trat.
Revenue disclosures from hospitals under KSS coverage reflect this increased demand, with Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS) reporting average revenue growth of 5.5% year-on-year for October and November, improving from the 1% year-on-year rise observed in 3Q25, fueled by strong domestic patient growth and robust tourism.
Bumrungrad Hospital (BH) maintained a guidance of 2-4% revenue growth year-on-year in 4Q25, in line with its third-quarter performance, which exhibited a 2% growth.
Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH) and Chularat Hospital (CHG) both returned to year-on-year revenue growth, reversing prior declines; BCH benefited more from social security revenues, while CHG saw high single-digit growth in cash revenue.
Krungsri expects total revenue among the four major hospital operators under its coverage to rise by 6% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q25, outperforming the flat growth reported in the previous quarter.
Despite a sequential dip in total profit—projected at THB 6,816 million, up 5% year-on-year but 2% below the prior quarter—full-year EBITDA margin is forecast to climb to 26.2%, compared with 21.7% a year earlier, thanks to economies of scale and effective cost management.
Looking ahead, Krungsri maintains a ‘Neutral’ recommendation on the healthcare group. Meanwhile, the outlook for 2026 is more positive, with projected net profit growth of 6% year-on-year, supported by increasing demand from an aging population, an expanding health insurance base, and rising treatment costs associated with greater disease complexity among both domestic and foreign patients.
Moreover, any upward revision in Social Security treatment fees could further boost sector profits. The analyst noted BDMS and BCH as the preferred picks, giving ‘Buy’ recommendations with target prices of THB 29 and THB 15.80 per share, respectively.
