- Weekly oil price situation analysis by Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP or Thai Oil): 12 January 2025
- Thai Oil forecasts on West Texas Crude Oil Outlook to perform at $US 54-64 per barrel while Brent Crude Oil is expected to project price at $US 57-67 per barrel
Crude Oil Market Outlook (9-15 January 2026)
Crude oil prices are expected to decline following an increase in crude oil supply from Venezuela. The United States has outlined plans to take control of Venezuelan crude oil trading in the future, which would result in higher export volumes to the US. Oil revenues are intended to be allocated towards stimulating economic growth in Venezuela. This strategy is expected to help ease sanctions against the country and allow investors to gain access to its oil resources.
Meanwhile, the United States and its allied partners supporting peace in Ukraine have signed an agreement aimed at ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, although no response has been received from Russia. Furthermore, oil supply tightness is likely to intensify due to EU sanctions on imports of Russian crude oil, which are scheduled to take effect on 21 January 2026.
Key Factors Likely to Impact Crude Oil Price Situation This Week
- Tensions between the United States and Venezuela have come into focus amid a rise in Venezuelan crude oil supply. This follows an announcement by US President Donald Trump that Venezuela is expected to export between 30 and 50 million barrels of crude oil to the United States. Separately, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Washington plans to introduce a policy to exert control over oil trading in Venezuela, with the proceeds intended to support economic recovery in the country.
- The United States has seized the oil tanker M/V Bella 1, sailing under the Russian flag, in the Atlantic Ocean near Iceland after a pursuit lasting more than two weeks. The vessel had previously evaded seizure in late December 2025, reportedly with support from Russian submarines and naval forces, though these efforts ultimately proved unsuccessful. The United States, in coordination with the United Kingdom, seized the tanker M/T Sophia, which flies the Panamanian flag, citing its involvement in oil trading linked to Russia and violations of sanctions. The seizure of the two vessels is expected to heighten tensions between the United States and Russia
- Prospects for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine have shown signs of progress after the United States and its allied partners supporting peace in Ukraine signed an agreement in Paris to provide what they described as legally binding security assurances for Ukraine. The talks were attended by US Special Representative Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump, alongside leaders from European Union member states. The agreement includes commitments related to military forces, intelligence cooperation and sanctions measures aimed at protecting Ukraine from any renewed attacks by Russia. Mr. Witkoff said President Donald Trump fully supports the measures, describing them as the strongest form of protection available. However, Russia’s position on the proposed agreement remains unchanged.
- Markets continue to closely monitor sanctions measures targeting companies importing crude oil from Russia, after India’s Reliance Industries (RIL) issued a statement denying a Bloomberg report that claimed three Russian crude oil tankers were en route to its Jamnagar refinery. RIL said it has not received any Russian crude oil deliveries since 22 December 2025 and has suspended purchase orders since November 2025, citing pressure from US sanctions. According to Bloomberg data, India’s imports of Russian crude oil for the week ending 4 January 2026 declined by 300,000 barrels per day to around 600,000 barrels per day.
- The weekly economic trend including the US significant economic index including CPI in December 2025, new house sales in December 2025, current house sales in November 2025, Manufacturing PMI in November 2025, retail sales index in November 2025, export price index in December 2025, and Industrial Production index in December 2025. The EU significant economic index including Industrial Production in November 2025 and China’s significant economic index including export index in December 2025 and import index in December 2025.
Crude Oil Price Summary (2-8 January 2026)
The West Texas Crude Oil price decreasing by $US 0.24 per barrel to $US 57.30 per barrel while Brent crude oil price decreasing by $US 0.21 per barrel to $US 61.03 per barrel following Venezuela’s cue on a willingness to cooperate with the United States. The development is expected to ease pressure from existing sanctions and pave the way for Venezuelan crude oil to re-enter global markets. US oil stocks closed higher after reports that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro had been captured, amid investor optimism over potential access to the country’s oil resources.
The US administration has indicated plans to allocate funding to support American oil companies in assisting the recovery of Venezuela’s energy infrastructure, with the process expected to take up to 18 months. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending 2 January 2026 fell by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels. This contrasted with analysts’ expectations of a 400,000-barrel increase, despite a rise in refinery output to 62,000 barrels per day. In addition, crude oil import volumes in the previous week reached their highest level since June 2023.
