Tarika Devahastin, Vice President-Financial Planning of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP), revealed that despite the downward trend in crude oil prices expected this year due to increased new production capacity, the gross refining margin (GRM) is expected to remain strong.
In the first quarter of 2026, the GRM stands at $6.8 per barrel, compared to $6.1 per barrel in the previous year. This is mainly due to refinery shutdowns in the United States and Europe, along with consistently rising demand. The key drivers this year are diesel and jet fuel, which continue to receive robust support from increasing demand. However, the gasoline market is likely to weaken this year because of rising supply.
Regarding crude oil price trends for this year, a decrease from last year is expected, owing to new supply entering the market. In 2025, there was an increase of 3.9 million barrels per day, up 3% from global crude oil demand. However, OPEC+ decided to delay further production increases to accommodate the oversupply currently in the market. Attention is now focused on the upcoming meeting on March 1, which will lead to a decision in April.
Non-OPEC countries are expected to increase production by 1.1 million barrels per day, mainly from Brazil (+0.4 million barrels per day) and the U.S. (+0.3 million barrels per day). Global crude oil demand this year is projected to grow by 1.1 million barrels per day.
As for Thailand’s oil market outlook, petroleum demand is expected to grow this year but at a slower rate than the previous year. The gasoline segment is forecast to grow by 1%, while gas oil is expected to decline year-over-year. Jet fuel is projected to grow by 4%, with an 11% increase in tourist numbers from last year to 36.7 million and a 3% rise in flight frequency due to route expansions.
In the aromatics market, paraxylene (PX) prices are expected to increase, supported by the postponement of new plant startups to 2027 and ongoing demand growth. Meanwhile, benzene (BZ) has not yet recovered, pressured by high economic uncertainty. The olefins market this year continues to face pressure from increasing production capacity, particularly from China and India.
Regarding progress on the Clean Fuel Project (CFP), it is expected to be completed as planned, with the original schedule set for 3Q28. The company adjusted its project management model last year, moving from an EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) contract to an EPCM (Engineering, Procurement, Construction Management) approach—allowing direct management with various contractors to boost flexibility, control costs, and expedite construction for maximum efficiency.
