Thai Foods Group Public Company Limited (SET: TFG) is positioned for a significant earnings recovery as it enters 2026, according to the latest analysis from Finansia Syrus Securities. While the final quarter of 2025 faced seasonal headwinds, the company’s strategic shift toward retail and a sharp rebound in regional meat prices suggest a bullish start to the new year.
TFG is expected to report a net profit of THB 1.3 billion. Although this represents a 23.6% decline from the previous quarter, it marks a substantial 52.3% increase year-on-year. Analysts noted that core profit, estimated at THB 1.44 billion, actually surpassed previous forecasts. This resilience comes despite a dip in average meat prices in Thailand and Vietnam during the period. Stable raw material costs helped maintain a gross margin of 17.9%, significantly higher than the 14.8% recorded in the same period the previous year.
A standout feature of TFG’s recent performance is its aggressive expansion into the retail sector. By the end of 2025, the company had grown its network to 615 branches, with retail revenue now accounting for nearly 40% of its total mix. This downstream integration is successfully mitigating the volatility of upstream meat prices. Management has set an ambitious target to reach 850 stores by the end of 2026, aiming for 30% revenue growth in the retail segment alone.
The outlook for the first quarter of 2026 is particularly strong, with earnings potentially reaching THB 1.8–2.0 billion. This recovery is driven by a projected 29.4% surge in Vietnam swine prices and an 11.7% rise in Thai swine prices.
Despite these catalysts, Finansia Syrus has adjusted its target price to THB 5.90 (down from THB 6.30) to reflect ESG-related risks by applying a lower PE multiple. Nevertheless, the firm maintains a BUY rating, citing TFG’s attractive valuation and a highly compelling expected dividend yield of approximately 10%. For investors, TFG offers a blend of retail-led stability and high-growth potential from recovering regional markets.
