PTT, Thailand’s flagship energy conglomerate, is navigating a pivotal transition as structural shifts in the global energy landscape begin to reshape its long-term growth outlook. Against this backdrop, investors are increasingly focused on how PTT balances near-term earnings stability with strategic adaptation—particularly as downstream operations, led by refining, emerge as a key buffer amid volatility in upstream markets.
Beyond Securities noted that PTT Public Company Limited (SET: PTT) is the country’s leading fully integrated energy business operator, covering the value chain from upstream to downstream. This includes exploration and production, procurement and import of natural gas, transportation via pipeline systems, gas separation, and distribution to the industrial and power generation sectors.
Currently, the growth of its core business faces increasing challenges stemming from regulatory and policy changes focused on carbon reduction and the transition to clean energy. The company must maintain a “balance” between stability and security from its traditional energy business while gradually transitioning and upgrading to a new energy structure to accommodate industry trends and long-term sustainability expectations.
Although the upstream business faced pressure under oversupply conditions—resulting in surplus supply continuing to weigh on oil prices—the refinery business is expected to improve. This is due to complex refineries with conversion units, such as octane upgrade units and molecular restructuring units, which enhance the quality of heavy crude oil into higher-valued light oil products.
This refinery structure grants Thai refineries high feedstock flexibility, enabling them to choose higher-density, lower-cost crude oil and efficiently refine it into finished products. This is a positive factor for the refinery business, such as Thai Oil’s (SET: TOP) refinery.
Therefore, PTT’s net profit for 2026-2027 is expected to reach THB 95.7 billion and THB 104 billion, respectively, with a gradual recovery trend driven by easing pressure factors and support from the downstream business, particularly refineries that stand to benefit from an improved gross refining margin (GRM), which will help stabilize profits and reduce overall oil price volatility. Nevertheless, the recommendation remains “Buy” for PTT at a target price of THB 37.75.
