President Donald Trump is scheduled to announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair on Friday, a decision closely watched by financial markets due to its implications for Fed autonomy. The selection comes as investors gauge whether the central bank will maintain its independence from political influence.
The shortlist for the top role at the Federal Reserve reportedly includes former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder, who oversees fixed income at BlackRock.
In recent weeks, prediction markets have shifted rankings among these candidates, with Hassett and then Rieder leading probability estimates before odds strongly turned in Warsh’s favor on Thursday evening. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket recently placed Warsh’s likelihood of selection at 80 percent.
During a Thursday evening statement, President Trump alluded to considering a candidate who had previously been in contention for the role, a comment which intensified speculation around Warsh. Warsh was a finalist during the 2017 process that ultimately resulted in Jerome Powell’s appointment.
Over the past year, Trump has repeatedly criticized Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, for not lowering interest rates further to stimulate economic expansion. Powell, meanwhile, has preferred a more cautious policy stance, citing inflationary risks following the administration’s tariffs.
The Federal Reserve chair nomination is expected to be announced on Friday, concluding a closely watched contest with significant implications for U.S. monetary policy.
