A U.S. federal trade judge has directed the government to begin refunding importers for tariffs collected under a policy that the Supreme Court determined was invalid. The scale of the refunds could reach into the billions, impacting both importers and federal revenue projections.
On Wednesday, Judge Richard Eaton at the U.S. Court of International Trade instructed the government to calculate the aggregate amount owed for millions of imports that entered the United States without any legal basis for tariffs. The refunds are to be paid with interest. Judge Eaton told the court that the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency should be able to utilize its existing systems, as refunds for duty overpayments are a standard procedure.
While the specific process for the refunds is still under consideration, the judge ordered CBP to submit its preliminary proposal by Friday to outline a plan that would avoid a large number of individual legal actions by importers.
Economists from the University of Pennsylvania’s fiscal research group estimate that CBP collected as much as $182 billion in tariffs implemented between February 2025 and February 2026 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). An alternative calculation by the Penn-Wharton team placed the sum at $177 billion, using a different methodology based on Treasury customs data.
The Supreme Court’s recent decision concluded that tariffs central to President Trump’s trade approach had been illegally collected, leaving uncertainty about the appropriate refund process due to a lack of specific direction from the Court. The government collected more than $130 billion from these measures.
In response to the Supreme Court ruling, the Trump administration enacted a temporary global tariff of 10% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with plans to raise it to 15%.
According to projections from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), this temporary measure could generate around $35 billion in additional revenue over the permitted 150-day period at a 10% rate, increasing to roughly $50 billion at 15%. Extending the tariff, if approved by Congress, or replicating its effect through other legal avenues could result in revenues surpassing $900 billion over ten years at 10%, or $1.3 trillion at 15%.
CRFB also noted that the Section 122 tariffs could offset more than half of the revenue lost after the Supreme Court decision at the 10% rate, or more than three-quarters at 15%. Separate estimates from Penn Wharton suggest a higher decade-long total for Section 122 revenue at $1.51 trillion, and projected 2026 annual receipts of up to $136 billion if the 15% tariff is maintained for a full year.
