ASL Securities estimates the 4Q25 net profit of Charoen Pokphand Foods PCL (SET: CPF) at around THB 2.1 billion, a decrease of 58% QoQ and a decrease of 48% YoY. This is due to pressure from softer pig prices in Thailand and across the Asian region, mainly as a result of the Vegetarian Festival, flooding situations, and the outbreak of swine disease in Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia, which have caused producers to accelerate distribution and increased supply.
The gross profit margin is likely to drop to 13.3% from 16.5% in 3Q25, while the profit share from associates stood at THB 1.9 billion, down 22.3% QoQ and 50.90% YoY, particularly due to Chia Tai Investment Co., Ltd (CTI), which was impacted by pig prices in China that have yet to recover.
For the outlook in 2026, the net profit is forecast at THB 21 billion, a decrease of 17.10% YoY. As for 2027, the net profit is expected to be THB 23 billion, an increase of 6.8% YoY. Total revenue for 2026 is forecast at THB 573 billion, while total revenue for 2027 is estimated at THB 578 billion.
ASL forecasts that pig and chicken prices in Thailand will gradually return to normal industry levels. The average pig price is expected at THB 76 per kilogram, up 2.9% from 4Q25 due to production control by the Swine Raisers Association. The average chicken price is projected at THB 40 per kilogram, up 7%, while pork and chicken prices abroad are also likely to recover as disease outbreaks in Asia subside.
The average gross profit margin during this period is forecast at 15.4%, reflecting the volatility of raw material prices that are likely to rise. SG&A to Sales is expected at 8.6–8.7%, demonstrating efficient cost management. The profit share from associates is anticipated at THB 11–12 billion, growing at an average of 2.6%.
CP All PCL (SET: CPALL) and CP Axtra PCL (SET: CPAXT) are the main revenue sources following the recovery in domestic purchasing power, including CTI, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of pig prices in China driven by government supply control measures. CPF will also start to recognize revenue from its joint venture with NH Foods Ltd. in the processed pork business in the Asian region.
ASL Securities recommends a “BUY” rating for CPF, with a 2026 target price set at THB 25.50.
