Therdsak Thaveeteeratham, Deputy Managing Director of Research Division at Asia Plus Securities (ASPS), has highlighted that the formation of Thailand’s new government is set to take place approximately 1 – 1.5 months earlier than usual following the general election. This accelerated timeline is expected to significantly reduce political uncertainty and generate positive effects for the Thai economy and capital markets.
According to Therdsak, the government formation process will kick off in mid-March 2026. On March 14, a Royal Decree will open the parliamentary session, marking the beginning of legislative proceedings. The following day, March 15, the House of Representatives will convene to select its Speaker and Deputy Speakers. A joint parliamentary session to elect the Prime Minister is scheduled for March 19.
From early to late April, the Cabinet’s appointment, submission of the list to His Majesty the King, and the government’s policy statement to parliament are set to take place. By May, the new government is expected to be fully functional.
Therdsak noted that processes governed by election laws—including the certification of election results and Constitutional Court rulings—now have strictly defined timeframes, minimizing procedural risks and increasing the likelihood of on-time government formation.
This expedited process should allow the 2027 fiscal budget to proceed without delay. A late government could otherwise postpone the budget by 2–3 months, adversely impacting public investment. Timely cabinet formation, however, assures prompt state fund disbursement into the economic system, which supports ongoing economic activity.
Political clarity is also set to benefit investor confidence and encourage foreign direct investment (FDI). Historically, stock markets respond with an “Election Rally” when there is greater government certainty, and foreign investors who have been waiting on the sidelines may ramp up their production base expansions, especially in the New S-Curve sectors.
On the domestic front, Therdsak anticipates the new administration will introduce quick, short-term economic stimulus measures (Quick Win) midway through the year to help bolster household purchasing power amid high debt levels—potentially resulting in a GDP upgrade for 2026. He referenced the 2019 election, when the Thai stock index rose by over 100 points, despite trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Despite the improved domestic political situation, external factors—particularly the U.S.-Iran tensions—continue to challenge regional markets, triggering capital outflows that have weighed on returns since March.
Given these circumstances, Therdsak recommends focusing on stocks that benefit from domestic consumption. Policy support from the expected Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai coalition may begin within the first 100 days of governance. Notable policies include Bhumjaithai’s “Half-Half Plus,” which subsidizes 50% of expenses, capping of electricity prices, and Pheu Thai’s debt resolution initiatives and grassroots economic stimulation.
Sectors poised to gain include retail (CP Axtra Public Company Limited (SET: CPAXT), Berli Jucker Public Company Limited (SET: BJC)), beverages (Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG), Osotspa Public Company Limited (SET: OSP), Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ICHI)), and finance (Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited (SET: MTC), TIDLOR Holdings Public Company Limited (SET: TIDLOR)), all of which could benefit from revived consumption and stronger liquidity.
