Krungsri Securities (KSS), in its latest analysis, expressed an optimistic view about the 2026 financial outlook for Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (SET: CENTEL), anchored by robust hospitality demand in Thailand and the Maldives.
KSS expects a solid 4Q25 core profit of THB 664 million, representing a stable 2% year-on-year increase and a significant 250% quarter-on-quarter surge. This projection is largely supported by a 13% year-on-year rise in hotel revenue, driven by higher overall revenue per available room (RevPAR) as occupancy rates improve across all major markets.
A key highlight is the exceptional RevPAR growth of 48% year-on-year for the Maldives segment, attributable to CENTEL’s strategic focus on boosting occupancy rates and the successful launch of new properties.
For the Thai hotel, the segment is foreseen to exhibit a 6% year-on-year RevPAR increase, particularly from stronger performances in upcountry regions, following the full reopening of recently renovated hotels. Meanwhile, Japan’s hotel operations are set to grow by 7% year-on-year.
On the food service side, revenues are forecasted to contract slightly by 2% year-on-year, though they are expected to improve sequentially by 2% quarter-on-quarter. This is due in part to a 3% same-store sales growth (SSSG) contraction in 4Q25, mainly from weaker results in CENTEL’s top brands. Nevertheless, KSS anticipates EBITDA margin will improve to 29.8%, driven by revenue growth.
If CENTEL achieves the projected 4Q25 results, this would suggest a modest 2% upside to the previously estimated 2025 core profit of THB 1.67 billion.
Krungsri has revised its 2025–2027 earnings forecasts upwards by 9–14%, now expecting a 23% annual rise in 2026 core profit to THB 2,099 million. This upgrade is underpinned by a sharp recovery in the hotel division, particularly in the Maldives, where RevPAR is forecast to rebound by 29% year-on-year.
In Thailand, a 7% year-on-year RevPAR increase is anticipated, spurred by a rise in international tourism and the recovery of MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) activity in Bangkok. Japanese operations are expected to moderate to 2% annual growth following the impact of Expo 2025.
The food business is projected to maintain flat SSSG, but earnings remain supported by strategic store expansions, improved margins from closing loss-making outlets, and tighter cost control.
Forward bookings for 1Q26 show promise with double-digit RevPAR growth in both Thailand and the Maldives, alongside continued growth in Japan, signaling robust year-on-year and sequential earnings improvement for the period.
Following these, Krungsri Securities maintains a ‘Buy’ rating for CENTEL, assigning a new target price of THB 43 per share, up from THB 37.50. CENTEL remains strategically well-positioned to capitalize on Thailand’s tourism resurgence, with hotel operations generating 72% of its total revenue.
The current trading multiple stands at 24 times 2026 forecast earnings, approximately one standard deviation below historical averages, offering valuation support. Nevertheless, KSS cautions that a sharper-than-expected downturn in tourism arrivals poses a significant downside risk, which could impact both hotel and food segment performance.
