On Thursday at 10:43 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Asia Aviation Public Company Limited (SET: AVV) rose by 4.35% or THB 0.05 to THB 1.20, with a trading value of THB 200.44 million.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) has upgraded its recommendation on AAV to ‘Buy’ from a previous ‘Reduce’ stance, while raising the target price to THB 1.41 per share. AAV is projected to report a normalized profit of THB 1.148 billion in 4Q25, a 14% decline from the previous year due to lower gross margins, which are expected to decrease to 21.7% compared to 24.2% a year earlier.
This margin pressure stems from both average ticket prices and passenger load factors, which are forecasted to fall 3% and 5% year-on-year, respectively, as a result of intensified competition and an increased mix of domestic routes, rising from 63% to 69%.
However, on a quarterly basis, profits are forecast to significantly recover from a loss of THB 1.24 billion in the prior quarter, supported by a 45% quarter-on-quarter jump in revenue, a 24% rise in passenger volume, a 17% increase in average fare, and a 4% improvement in load factor thanks to seasonal high-demand periods and a strategic shift toward domestic flights.
Krungsri anticipates AAV’s net profit for Q4 to reach THB 1.525 billion, up 328% from the previous year and rebounding from a 875-million-baht loss in the prior quarter, supported by foreign exchange gains associated with a stronger baht. The brokerage has revised its 2025 normalized profit forecast upwards to THB 361 million from a prior estimate of a 159-million-baht loss, and expects net profit at THB 2.256 billion, up 175% from its earlier forecast.
Forecasts for 2026 normalized profit have been raised 377% to THB 1.221 billion, representing a 238% annual increase, while the 2027 estimate has been adjusted upward by 62% to THB 1.326 billion, up 9% year-on-year. These revisions reflect stronger-than-expected revenue and improved cost management.
Passenger volume is anticipated to rise by 1–2%, signaling sustained growth in the domestic market, and average ticket prices are expected to edge up by 2% in anticipation of price stability over 2026–2027, as per the analyst. The oil price (jet fuel) assumption has also been updated to $85 per barrel from $90 per barrel, following a lower-than-expected trend, with the year-to-date average for 2026 standing at $83.2 per barrel.
Following these, Krungsri attributes the positive assessment to AAV’s success in expanding its domestic presence, which is helping counterbalance weaker international demand and lower oil prices.
