On Thursday, the share price of Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (SET: THAI) at the time of 10.56 a.m. was at THB 6.6, a THB 0.6 or 10% increase with a total trading value of THB 1,147.22 million.
On February 4, THAI faced weaker-than-expected selling pressure following the expiration of the “Silent Period” for over 6.6 billion shares, which has analysts estimating heavy sell-offs immediately after the lock-up was lifted.
Furthermore, trading volume throughout the day was only 610.34 million shares, reflecting that many major shareholders were not rushing to sell. Meanwhile, the share price of THAI weakened during the day to hit a low of THB 5.25 before bouncing back late in the session, causing the price to close at THB 6.
Major shareholders—including the Ministry of Finance, commercial bank groups, and cooperatives—continued to hold on to their shares, reflecting confidence in the company’s recovery prospects and helping to reduce supply-side pressure after the unlocking of the large share lot had passed.
Yuanta Securities (Thailand) recommends a “gradual accumulation” investment strategy for THAI shares to receive dividends, despite cutting the target price to THB 9.30 from THB 12.00, based on an EV/EBITDA valuation method of 6.5x to reflect a slower profit growth outlook and concerns about rising free float in the market.
Nevertheless, the current share price still has an upside of up to 32.9%, maintaining a “Buy” recommendation. The brokerage firm advises investors to wait for more clarity after the selling pressure from the lock-up shares has subsided.
On returns, Yuanta expects a dividend payment for fiscal year 2025 of about THB 0.27 per share, representing a dividend yield of approximately 4.5%, which is considered attractive for long-term holding. For 4Q25 performance, normal profit is expected at approximately THB 7.5 billion, an increase of 39% QoQ due to the High Season for tourism, with the total passenger number rising to 4.3 million.
For 2026, the securities house expects normal profit at around THB 27 billion, down 12% YoY. The key challenge remains cost management, as, despite a decline in jet fuel prices, personnel and maintenance costs remain high after the sharp recovery in 2025.
Future growth may be limited by fleet size constraints and the challenge of managing costs amid an overly rapid business expansion during the recovery period.
Phillip Securities (Thailand) expects THAI’s net profit in the fourth quarter of 2025 to be THB 4,798 million, an improvement from a net loss of THB 42,342 million in the same period last year.
CGS International Securities (Thailand) recommends accumulating THAI shares if there are short-term profit-takings, citing a positive aviation industry outlook in 2026.
Current valuation remains attractive, prompting an upgrade to “Buy” from “Hold” with a target price of THB 8.2, based on an EV/EBITDA of 4.4x in 2027 (a 20% discount compared to peers), in recognition of downward trending EPS and the overhang from the end of the lock-up period.
The analyst firm views that stronger-than-expected yield and faster-than-expected aircraft deliveries will help support the share price. Downside risks include fuel price volatility, regulatory changes, and state intervention.
Bualuang Securities noted that if the share price falls to THB 6, corresponding to a PER of just 6x in 2026 (48% below the regional average of 11.4x) and a dividend yield of 5.0% (comparable to the banking sector but higher than the average yield of 3.0% for SET and the region), it presents an accumulation opportunity, given the strong profit outlook for 2026 which should support share prices going forward.
TISCO Securities expects THAI’s passenger numbers to improve in line with the tourism sector recovery. In terms of operations, maintenance expenses and staff costs are expected to gradually return to normal, which will support profit improvement QoQ.
In 1Q26, Thai Airways will receive additional new aircraft, including 2 Airbus A321s and 1 Boeing 787, with new route launches also planned in the same period to meet recovering travel demand.
The company is scheduled to announce its results on February 26, 2026, and has set a fair value estimate for THAI shares at THB 9.30.
