Krungsri Securities (KSS) has released its latest outlook on SISB Public Company Limited (SET: SISB), projecting a fourth-quarter 2025 net profit of THB 235 million, representing a 4% decline year-on-year and a 15% decrease quarter-on-quarter. This slightly negative trend stems from a combination of muted revenue growth and higher operating expenses.
KSS attributes the softer quarterly performance primarily to two factors. Firstly, while SISB’s education fee revenue is expected to edge up slightly (+1% year-on-year, +2% quarter-on-quarter), boosted by a modest rise in average term fee per student (THB 151,710/person, +2% year-on-year, +4% quarter-on-quarter), total student numbers are forecast to fall to 4,580, down 1% year-on-year and stable quarter-on-quarter. This drop is due to students leaving that outpace new enrollments.
Secondly, operating expenses are set to rise sharply, with SG&A expected to increase 12% year-on-year and 44% quarter-on-quarter, partly reflecting the absence of the bad debt reserve reversal seen in the previous quarters.
When excluding extraordinary items related to the mark-to-market adjustment of Thai Airways shares, normalized net profit is anticipated to come in at THB 228 million, down 7% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter. This is lower than earlier forecasts, according to KSS.
Given the current enrollment and fee trends, Krungsri has trimmed its profit estimates for SISB. The firm now expects 2025 profit at THB 942 million, down 1% from THB 948 million previously. For 2026 and 2027, profits have been revised down by 7% and 13% to THB 962 million and THB 1,005 million, respectively.
The revisions are based on:
- A cut to projected student numbers (down by 2-6% versus prior estimates). SISB is now forecast to see a net reduction of 40 students in 2025, with only modest gains of 50 and 100 new students in 2026 and 2027.
- Downward revision of average term fees by 3-5%.
- EBITDA margin for 2026-2027 is forecast to be lower by 2 percentage points per year.
Despite this, SISB is still expected to deliver normalized profit growth of 2% year-on-year in 2026 as revenue rises in line with student numbers and fees. Gross margin is also projected to improve to 54.2% (from 53.9% in 2025), aided by increased economies of scale as the student-to-teacher ratio remains favorable at 8:1.
KSS maintains its ‘Buy’ rating on SISB but revises the target price down to THB 17 per share (from THB 23). The lower target reflects the reduced growth outlook, now at an average of 3% CAGR for 2026–2027, compared to the previous 9% rate.
Despite these headwinds, KSS highlights SISB’s quality fundamentals as a ‘Defensive’ stock, citing steady profit growth supported by its student base and grade progression, significant operating leverage (with 70-80% fixed costs), and potential for growth via expansion into mid-tier markets. The company is slated to announce its full-year earnings on 23 February 2026.
