On Friday at 11:46 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) rose by 2.40% or THB 0.75 to THB 32.00, with a trading value of THB 324.58 million.
Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) grew by 2.75% or THB 1.25 to THB 46.75, with a trading value of THB 354.55 million.
Star Petroleum Refining Public Company Limited (SET: SPRC) increased by 2.99% or THB 0.20 to THB 6.90, with a trading value of THB 56.19 million.
DAOL Securities (Thailand) wrote that Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, officially announced on Thursday a reduction in its oil selling price (OSP) for Asian buyers for March 2026 to the lowest level since 2020, signaling signs of oversupply in the global oil market.
Saudi Aramco reduced the premium for its Arab Light crude oil by $0.3/bbl for March 2026 deliveries, bringing the price of Arab Light on par with Oman/Dubai crude. However, this premium cut is smaller than analysts’ previous expectations of a reduction within the range of $0.5-$0.85/bbl, indicating that Saudi Arabia remains confident in the demand for its crude oil.
Previously, the CEO of Saudi Aramco commented that concerns about an oil oversupply were exaggerated, according to reports by Reuters and Bloomberg.
DAOL has a slightly positive view of the Thai refinery sector as a result of this news, due to reduced production costs. Refineries that rely mainly on Middle Eastern crude (SPRC, TOP, IRPC) are expected to benefit the most.
Notably, Brent crude futures fell 2.8% to $67.6/bbl on Thursday. The analyst maintains the average Dubai crude oil price assumption for 2026 at $67.0/bbl, down from $68.4/bbl, and keeps the investment weighting ‘Market Weight.’
DAOL remains favorable toward refinery stocks, as they are expected to continue to benefit from a year-on-year increase in the crack spread (product-to-crude price differential) in 1Q26, with a ‘Buy’ recommendation given to BCP (Target: THB 34.00), and ‘Hold’ ratings to TOP (Target THB 40.00), and SPRC (Target THB 6.50).
