Despite experiencing significant financial headwinds in 2025, Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL) is entering 2026 with renewed optimism. Industry analysts are forecasting a robust earnings recovery for IVL, driven by a notable improvement in PET (polyethylene terephthalate) market dynamics.
KGI Securities wrote in its analysis that Indorama Ventures is projected to report a net loss of Bt2.0 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting a significant downturn from a net profit of Bt1.1 billion in the same period last year and deepening from the Bt818 million net loss posted in the third quarter of 2025. According to the latest analyst estimates, this year-on-year plunge is primarily attributed to an expected drop in the company’s core EBITDA margin, forecast at US$88 per ton for the quarter—down 13% year-on-year.
Quarter-on-quarter, IVL’s financial performance is expected to be impacted by a projected stock loss of Bt1.1 billion, which further deteriorates from the Bt432 million loss recorded in the previous quarter. Despite these near-term challenges, the outlook for the company is improving.
The 2026 fair value target price for IVL has been revised upward to Bt24.50 from Bt20.00, following an increased EV/EBITDA multiple assumption of 8.0x, previously 7.5x. As a result, the investment rating for IVL has been upgraded to “Outperform” from “Neutral.” This upgrade reflects analysts’ expectations of a material earnings recovery in 2026 and strong seasonal demand for PET during the upcoming summer.
Market sentiment for PET (polyethylene terephthalate) is beginning to improve, according to KGI. Asian PET spreads rebounded by 51% month-on-month in January 2026, rising from US$62 per ton to US$94 per ton. Industry experts source this as a sign of strengthening fundamentals. Furthermore, the brokerage firm noted that PET demand growth from 2026 onwards is projected to outpace new supply additions, which is anticipated to alleviate the PET oversupply situation that is expected to reach its peak during 2025.
