Pi Securities has maintained its “Buy” recommendation on Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ICHI), with a target price set at THB 15.10. The company is still viewed as an attractive dividend stock with a yield of 7-8%. The securities firm anticipated that ICHI’s normalized profit in 2026 will recover by 9% from the previous year, driven by a rebound in green tea sales and robust growth in PH+ alkaline water sales.
ICHI will report its annual results on February 19, 2026. The analyst firm expects normalized profit for 4Q25 to be THB 283 million, an increase of 5% year-on-year, but a decrease of 21% quarter-on-quarter, supported by PH+ alkaline water sales. This is despite the ready-to-drink tea market in Thailand shrinking by 9% YoY in 4Q25 due to weather conditions and consumer purchasing power. The company is expected to pay a second-half 2025 dividend at THB 0.55 per share, representing a dividend yield of approximately 4%.
The domestic ready-to-drink tea market, ICHI’s main revenue source, contracted in 2025 to THB 17.6 billion, a decline of 5% year-on-year. This was influenced by milder weather and increased rainfall, unlike the previous year, which benefited from El Niño. This trend matches the overall decline in the beverage market in 2025, both in volume and value. However, ICHI has continued to maintain strong market share. According to Nielsen data for 2025, ICHI’s sell-out sales contracted 5.6% year-on-year, less than Oishi’s decline of 7.7%.
Pi projects that in 2026, sales of Ichitan and Yen Yen ready-to-drink teas will recover by 4% from the previous year, supported by a low base from inventory reduction to limit sales through Super Hypermarkets, which will serve as the new base from April 2026.
There is also an easing impact from Oishi’s 10-baht-per-bottle products in traditional retail outlets, with Ichitan’s traditional retail market share overtaking Oishi’s as of December 2025. Additionally, data from the Meteorological Department predict weather will normalize from La Niña in 2026, potentially boosting demand for refreshing beverages compared to the previous year.
The analyst house has made a conservative assumption of 8% sales growth for 2026, compared to the company’s target of at least 10%. ICHI continues to focus on brand strengthening strategies, new product development to meet consumer demands, and expanding revenue growth in the health segment products (PH+ alkaline water).
In 2026, ICHI targets PH+ alkaline water sales at THB 1 billion, up from over THB 600 million in 2025. The company also aims for a 20% YoY increase in OEM revenue from existing coconut water IF OEM contract and two new clients currently under negotiation, with revenue recognition expected from late 2Q26. Internationally, product distribution is expanding into new markets beyond the main CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam) markets.
Additionally, Pi expects a 20-million-baht profit share from the Indonesia JV in 2026, matching company forecasts, and expects the profit share to begin recovering from 4Q25, supported by favorable response to cheese tea products.