After the decisive election on February 8, 2026, the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), led by caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Chanvirakul, emerged as the clear winner in Thailand’s general election, securing 194 out of 500 parliamentary seats. The People’s Party (PP) and Pheu Thai (PT) followed with 116 and 76 seats, respectively, while Kla Tham (KT) and the Democrat Party trailed with 57 and 22 seats.
KGI Securities notes that BJT is expected to lead the next coalition, likely negotiating with PT and KT to form a stable government, as PP has signaled its intention to remain in opposition. This outcome is seen as positive for the SET Index given the expectation of policy continuity, particularly with existing economic initiatives such as Co-payment Plus, household debt relief, and the Thailand Investment Fast Track (FastPass) program aimed at attracting foreign direct investment.
The continued leadership of BJT is also expected to see respected technocrats, including Dr. Ekniti Nitithanprapas for finance, Ms. Suphajee Suthumpun for commerce, and Mr. Sihasak Phuangketkeow for foreign affairs, guiding Thailand’s key ministries. Investors are watching for potential adjustments to the eligibility criteria for the Thailand Individual Saving Account (TISA) to broaden investment inclusion.
According to constitutional timelines, the Election Commission must endorse official results by April 9, 2026, with the new prime minister and cabinet expected to be in place by late April.
KGI maintains its SET Index target at 1,430 for year-end 2026, citing attractive opportunities in construction services and industrial estate sectors as top post-election trades. The consumer sector is anticipated to benefit to a lesser extent, given modest expected economic stimulus and slow growth in the first half of the year. KGI highlights STECON Group, WHA Corporation, CP All, and Central Pattana (CPN) as preferred investment picks following the election.
Meanwhile, Tisco Securities has released its latest insights following early election results that BJT’s anticipated win as the best-case scenario for Thai markets, primarily by ensuring political stability. The removal of protest risks—previously associated with a possible People Party win—strengthens investor confidence. BJT’s potential control over key ministries like Finance and Commerce will likely allow for more streamlined policy implementation.
Economic policies from BJT’s previous tenure are expected to resume. TISCO forecasts swift reintroduction of cash handouts, such as a Copayment Phase II scheme, and new measures to revive tourism, including direct cash incentives and the development of artificial attractions. Additionally, BJT is likely to accelerate Thailand’s Fast Pass program, aimed at increasing foreign direct investment, in response to robust interest at the Board of Investment. The government is also expected to target high household debt, focusing on removing bad loans from household balance sheets.
Tisco expects the SET Index to potentially test the 1,400 mark in the short term, led by sectors benefitting from incoming policies. Highlighted picks include:
- Commerce (CPALL, CPAXT, BJC, CRC) due to anticipated boosts in domestic consumption,
- Tourism (AWC, ERW) on a brighter industry outlook,
- Contractors (STECON) for increased project backlogs,
- Industrial estates (WHA) benefiting from higher FDI, and
- Finance (MTC) for improving asset quality.
Despite the immediate positive sentiment, Tisco cautions that upside may be capped with a potential market correction anticipated in the second half of 2025. Structural challenges—such as high public debt, which is nearing the 70% threshold, and a delayed FY27 budget—could weigh on economic fundamentals and dampen optimism in the medium term.
