Kasikorn Securities (KS) has released its latest outlook for Thailand’s commerce sector, noting a likely decline in same-store sales growth (SSSG) for January 2026 compared to the previous month, attributed to the absence of targeted E-tax incentives and a shift in the Chinese New Year holiday period.
The average SSSG for January is expected to come in at -2.8%, slightly down from -2.5% in December 2025. This drop is mainly driven by a high base from the previous year—when the Easy e-receipt tax deduction scheme was still in effect—as well as the rescheduling of the Chinese New Year, now falling in February instead of January.
Kasikorn notes a significant variation in January SSSG among the nine prominent retailers. Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation (MOSHI) is expected to post the sector’s strongest SSSG, while Dohome (DOHOME) and Home Product Center (HMPRO) are likely to report the weakest figures.
Within the essential goods retail segment, SSSG is predicted to decline further from December. BigC’s same-store sales are anticipated to remain negative and similar to the prior month, whereas CP Axtra (CPAXT)’s B2B channel may outperform its B2C segment. However, overall SSSG for CPAXT is expected to turn more negative compared to December.
CP All (CPALL), a sector leader, is forecasted to show an improvement in SSSG from December but will likely remain in negative territory due to the Chinese New Year holiday shift.
The home improvement and construction materials sector is facing added pressures, with SSSG projected to weaken to -8% in January, compared to -7.8% in December. The main headwinds cited are slower government construction activity, the lack of fiscal incentives reminiscent of last year, and persistently weak demand.
Despite slight improvements month-on-month for DOHOME and Siam Global House (GLOBAL) to -10% (from -10.5%) and -4% (from -5%) in January, HMPRO’s SSSG is expected to drop sharply to -10% (from -5%).
For luxury and discretionary retailers, overall SSSG is expected to trend lower month-on-month in January. Central Retail Corporation (CRC) is projected to see a steeper negative SSSG, at -6% to -8%, worsened by softer figures in both fashion and hardline categories. Tanachira Retail Corporation (TAN)’s SSSG, on the other hand, is expected to hold steady for a third consecutive month, reflecting both the absence of E-tax incentives and a dip in tourist arrivals.
MR. D.I.Y. Holding (Thailand) (MRDIYT) and MOSHI’s sales are likely to remain robust, with positive SSSG of +7-9% and +1-2%, respectively, supported by ongoing positive sales momentum.
KS forecasts a continued negative trend for overall SSSG in the first quarter of 2026 on a year-on-year basis, despite some recovery in the tourism sector. Notably, the lack of new government stimulus measures is expected to weigh more heavily on consumption than the boost from tourism. The effect of the shifted Chinese New Year will be neutralized when considering combined SSSG figures for January and February.
However, Kasikorn maintains a ‘Neutral’ stance on the retail sector, citing expectations that retail sales will face challenging comparisons in the first quarter of 2026. Improvement is anticipated from the second quarter onwards, as consumer spending is likely to recover in the latter half of the year. This anticipated uptick is tied to the formal establishment of the new government and an ongoing rebound in tourism.
Among retail stocks, CPALL, MOSHI, and MRDIYT continue to be Kasikorn’s preferred picks within the sector. ‘Outperform’ ratings are given on BJC, CPALL, CRC, GLOBAL, MOSHI, and MRDIYT, with target prices of THB 17.40, THB 57.20, THB 22.50, THB 8.00, THB 49.20, and THB 10.10, respectively.
Meanwhile, ‘Neutral’ ratings are assigned for CPAXT, DOHOME, HMPRO, and TAN, with target prices of THB 16.40, THB 3.70, THB 7.30, and THB 3.82, respectively.
