At the end of the morning session on Monday, the share price of Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: CRC) soared by 8.00% or THB 1.60 to THB 21.60, with a trading value of THB 546.16 million.
Pi Securities forecasts that CRC’s net profit is set to return to year-on-year growth from the second quarter of 2026, driven by an improving same-store sales growth (SSSG) trend. The next dividend payment is anticipated in May 2026, with an estimated yield of 5–6%, offering potential downside protection for the stock price.
The company is also expected to reveal its growth strategy in March 2026. In the short term, CRC’s fourth-quarter 2025 core profit is projected to reach between 2.5 billion and 3 billion baht, marking a significant quarter-on-quarter increase due to seasonal factors, as the retail sector typically sees higher activity during this period. This result factors in profit recognition from the Rinascente business up to November 18, 2025.
Looking at SSSG in January 2026, growth is seen in the range of 4–5%. However, this is subject to pressure because the Chinese New Year falls in February 2026, unlike January in 2025, and due to a higher base from the Easy E-Receipt tax incentive running from mid-January to late February 2025. Excluding these factors, the business is expected to benefit from increased pre-election consumer spending and a continued recovery in tourism.
By segment, Thailand’s food business SSSG is forecast at a 1–3% rise, with GO Wholesale and Tops Daily showing strength in line with other convenience store chains, while Tops Supermarket is likely to see a slight decline. Meanwhile, the Vietnamese food segment remains under pressure from the local Tet festival and currency effects, as the baht has appreciated approximately 9–10% against the dong.
Thailand’s hardline category is expected to see SSSG drop 4–6% over the previous year, mainly due to softer performance at Power Buy, though Thai Watsadu is projected to see growth of 3–4%, similar to peers in the home improvement sector. The fashion segment in Thailand is projected to contract by 7–9% in SSSG due to a high base effect from previous tax incentives.
The brokerage firm maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on CRC, setting a target price of 24.00 baht based on an 18-times P/E multiple, referencing 2026 earnings forecasts. This valuation is comparable to sector averages and is supported by the outlook for improving same-store sales growth.
