Citi Research analysts see the outcome of Thailand’s 2026 general election as setting the stage for enhanced political stability and smoother policy execution, which is expected to bolster investor confidence in the Thai stock market.
Early results from the election on 8 February indicate that the incumbent Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), a progressive conservative force, is poised to win approximately 39% of the lower house seats. Its ally, the Klatam Party (KT), is on track for about 11%. These figures surpass recent NIDA Poll projections and suggest BJT and KT could form a governing coalition, potentially without the support of the Pheu Thai Party (PT), which trails with 23%.
Unlike Thailand’s previous election in 2023—when senators could participate in the prime ministerial vote—only the 500 elected MPs now determine the premiership. This change favors current caretaker PM Anutin Charnvirakul’s return to office, even if BJT and KT act alone.
According to Citi, the Election Commission has 60 days to confirm official results, after which the new Lower House will be inaugurated, the House Speaker elected, and the prime minister chosen, likely by late April. The cabinet is expected to take office in early May, followed by 2027 budget discussions ahead of the new fiscal year starting in October.
Citi expects these developments to have a positive impact on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Key factors include BJT’s increased influence over major economic ministries, reduced risk of market-disruptive stimulus packages, and lower chances of protests or a military coup. The decisive showing by BJT should help narrow the earnings yield spread of the SET Index over Thai government 10-year bond yields, removing uncertainty over policy shifts.
Market sell-offs post-election are seen as unlikely, given subdued pre-election stimulus promises and already low expectations as reflected in historically low foreign ownership. Citi reiterates its end-2026 SET Index target of 1,450 and highlights top buy recommendations: CPALL, MINT, BDMS, TRUE, KTB, GULF, and CPN.
UBS wrote in an analysis paper after the election that with 85% of the votes counted in Thailand’s latest general election, the Bhumjaithai Party has established a commanding lead, surpassing expectations by securing the highest number of constituencies and the second-most votes from the Party-List. This result has surprised markets, as pre-election polls had indicated the People’s Party was in front, yet the latter underperformed compared to its 2023 results.
Trailing behind are the Pheu Thai Party in third and a stronger-than-anticipated showing from Kla Tham. UBS analysts suggest these results are likely to enable Bhumjaithai to form a coalition government swiftly, possibly including Pheu Thai, Kla Tham, and smaller parties. The People’s Party, according to its leader’s public stance, will remain in opposition, as they previously vowed not to join a coalition they did not lead.
This scenario matches the “Compromise” outcome UBS flagged in past research, but the scale of Bhumjaithai’s lead could produce even more stability and political clarity, as government formation is expected to be swift and well-supported.
Next, the Election Commission must certify the results within 60 days, by 9 April, and the first parliamentary session will follow within a further 15 days.
UBS notes that investor positioning—both domestic and foreign—has skewed defensively ahead of the election, with preferences leaning toward telcos, energy, materials, and utilities sectors, while consumer-related stocks have seen weak to negative flows.
UBS expects a potential relief rally in consumer stocks if the rapid government formation materializes with Bhumjaithai at the helm. The UBS Thailand strategy team maintains its top stock picks: CPALL, GULF, KBANK, KTB, and MINT. Additionally, UBS highlights CRC (as a domestic consumption proxy with high beta) and SCC (now seen as undervalued with infrastructure upside via increased cement demand), while removing TRUE and PTT from its preferred stocks.
