Maybank Securities (Thailand) has retained a positive view on Central Pattana Public Company Limited (SET: CPN), citing strong profit growth expected for both the fourth quarter of 2025 and throughout 2026.
CPN’s core profit growth is projected to accelerate significantly from just 1% in 2025 to 15% in 2026, reflecting an anticipated recovery in revenue as well as operational efficiency improvements.
Despite this promising outlook, CPN’s projected 2026 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is still about 10% lower than the sector average, even though the company expects higher same-store rental revenue growth compared to the industry benchmark.
Looking into 4Q25, the analyst forecasts that CPN will post a core profit of approximately THB 4.4 billion, representing a 4% increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. This growth will be driven by the opening of new shopping centers and the transfer of ownership from two condominium projects. Total revenue is estimated to reach THB 14.4 billion, an 8% rise from the previous year and a 29% jump from the prior quarter.
However, the growth in quarterly revenue may outpace that of profit, largely due to seasonal marketing campaigns that typically push selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses up by as much as 45%. Additionally, some of the revenue growth is attributed to the residential business, which operates on lower margins than the core business.
Examining revenue composition, Maybank expects rental, hotel, and residential revenues to rise by 4%, 23%, and 307% quarter-on-quarter, respectively. Rental income, which comprises roughly 78% of 4Q25 revenue, is tipped to grow 4% both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, driven primarily by a 3% increase in same-store rental income.
The growth is further supported by the launch of new projects such as Central Park (opened September 2025), Central Krabi (October 2025 launch), and Central Park Offices, which have shown continuous improvement in occupancy rates since mid-2025.
Meanwhile, residential business revenue—accounting for around 18% of quarterly income—is forecast to surge by 29% year-on-year and 307% from the preceding quarter, due in large part to the transfer of the two condominium projects with a combined value of approximately THB 2.2 billion.
For 2026, Maybank expects CPN’s core profit growth to accelerate to 15%, supported by a 5% increase in total revenue, following a 1% contraction in 2025. This uptick is also buoyed by a projected 35% increase in profit sharing from joint ventures and associates.
The revenue expansion will mainly stem from a net leasable area (NLA) increase of about 13% from 2Q25 to end-2026, with new retail projects such as Central Khonkaen Campus, Central Northville, the luxury zone in Central Phuket, and The Central Phahon. Additionally, returns from investments, especially the THB 15 billion Dusit Residences, in which CPN holds a 30% stake, are expected to trend higher.
Given these factors, Maybank Securities continues to recommend a ‘Buy’ rating for CPN. The target price has been revised upward to THB 67.0 from THB 64.0 after extending the target evaluation period to the end of 2026. The firm also highlights that CPN’s formal revenue guidance announcement for 2026, set for February 25, will be a key driver for future stock revaluation.
