Krungsri Securities (KSS) expects VGI Public Company Limited (SET: VGI) to report a normalized net profit of THB 92 million for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (covering October to December 2025), marking a significant 70% year-on-year decline but a 19% quarter-on-quarter increase.
The annual decrease is attributed to an 11% contraction in total revenue, mainly due to the end of certain advertising contracts and weaker growth in new business segments such as Digital Services and Distribution, reflecting the broader economic slowdown. Gross margin has narrowed, selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) have risen, and both other income and the share of profit from associates have decreased.
The sequential increase is in line with the seasonal high for advertising businesses. However, excluding THB 110 million in other income and THB 74 million in profit-sharing from associates, VGI is anticipated to show a loss of around THB 94 million this quarter, according to the analyst.
For the first nine months of the fiscal year 2026 (April–December 2025), VGI’s normalized profit is expected to be THB 208 million, down 54% from the previous year.
As a result, KSS has cut its FY26 normalized profit estimate by 20% to THB 218 million, signifying a 56% drop year-on-year. The downward revision reflects the overall business weakness, continued losses from new business ventures that have not yet achieved breakeven, and lower-than-expected profit contributions from associated companies.
Earnings outlook for FY27 and FY28 has also been revised down, with normalized profits forecast at THB 226 million (+4% year-on-year) and THB 236 million (+4% year-on-year), respectively, a reduction of 32% and 29% from previous estimates.
This is primarily due to a lower anticipated share of profit from associates, especially JMART, which is now expected to contribute THB 268 million and THB 303 million for FY27 and FY28, respectively, down 33% and 30% from prior forecasts.
Despite these pressures, VGI retains a robust financial position following capital increases and the sale of investments in the previous year. As of the end of the second quarter of FY26 (September 2025), the company held over THB 20 billion in cash and liquid financial assets, with interest-bearing debt under THB 1 billion and a low debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.1 times.
Future growth will depend on the company’s ability to deploy its substantial cash for new investments, which remains a crucial catalyst for long-term performance. VGI is expected to announce its financial results on February 12, 2026.
Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on VGI, with a revised target price for FY26 of THB 1.28 per share, down from THB 1.41, reflecting the ongoing weakness in operational performance.
Key strengths of VGI are (1) the company’s cash and liquid financial assets exceeding THB 20 billion, equating to net cash of THB 1.00 per share, providing readiness for new investments that will be a major growth catalyst in the future, and (2) additional value from its 23% stake in PLANB, a leading out-of-home media business with strong earnings potential, valued at THB 0.24 per share.
