Kiatnakin Phatra has reiterated its BUY rating on TMBThanachart Bank (SET: TTB), raising its price objective to 2.42 baht from 2.20 baht, following TTB’s announcement of three significant capital actions aimed at enhancing shareholder value.
Firstly, TTB will fast-track a 21 billion baht share buyback originally planned for 2025-27, now to be completed by 2026. The remaining 9.61 billion baht, accounting for up to 4.5% of paid-up capital, is scheduled for repurchase between 20 February and 19 August 2026, with up to 10,614 million shares (10.8% of total shares) targeted.
Secondly, the bank declared a final dividend of 0.068-0.071 baht per share, with the higher payout applicable if the buyback is fully completed by 23 March 2026. Otherwise, shareholders will receive the lower amount.
Thirdly, TTB will seek approval at its April 2026 AGM for an additional 14 billion baht share buyback covering 2027-28—potentially raising total shares repurchased to 18% of outstanding equity.
Kiatnakin Phatra has revised its projections, factoring in the accelerated 2026 buyback and the proposed 2027 buyback, resulting in lower share counts and boosting estimated EPS growth by 7% in 2026, with just a marginal 0.5% anticipated drop in 2027. Dividend per share (DPS) forecasts have also been increased to 0.135 baht for 2025, 0.144 baht for 2026, and 0.139 baht for 2027.
Kiatnakin Phatra continues to recommend KBANK and KTB for potential dividend upside, but highlights that TTB now offers superior valuation and EPS growth prospects. The broker notes that TTB’s resilient net interest margin (NIM), stable non-interest income, and the enlarged, earlier buyback program should help cushion the effects of the 2027 tax expiry. At 0.8 times price-to-book value (PBV) and offering a 7% dividend yield, TTB stands out as the sector’s most compelling investment opportunity.
