Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BCH) has delivered optimistic early results for 2026, with significant growth in patient revenue from the Middle East, according to recent commentary from an analyst meeting attended by Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS).
Management at BCH indicated that revenue for January and February 2026 increased slightly year-on-year (YoY), underpinned by a robust 80%-90% YoY jump in revenue from Middle East (ME) patients.
This sharp increase was attributed to three main factors: a rise in patients from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) transferring from other hospitals to the Diabetic Wound Center at World Medical Center (WMC); an influx of patients from Qatar, marking WMC’s expansion into a fresh geographic market; and a comparatively low revenue base in the first quarter of 2025 (THB 51 million) versus the higher average seen in the remainder of last year (THB 93 million in 2Q-4Q25).
However, management noted that a drop in Cambodian patient volumes—due to the ongoing closure of the border—continues to impact the company’s overall patient numbers.
Looking ahead, BCH maintains its guidance for full-year 2026 revenue growth in the mid-single digits, presuming the ongoing conflict in the Middle East resolves rapidly. KKPS has forecasted a 4% rise in revenue and an 8% increase in core profit for 2026.
BCH’s management also highlighted upcoming discussions with the Social Security Office (SSO) regarding a proposed rise in the fixed payment per registered insured patient, from THB 1,808 to THB 2,000. This discussion is expected to take place after Thailand’s new labour minister is appointed, likely post-April 2026.
The SSO has also confirmed plans to increase reimbursement for chronic diseases and broaden the list of eligible procedures for one-day surgeries, while maintaining a fixed payment rate of THB 12,000 per Relative Weight (RW) for high-cost treatments.
Should the fixed payment be raised to THB 2,000 in July 2026, KKPS estimates BCH’s profit could see an annual uplift of THB 160 million—about 6% of the brokerage’s 2026 profit forecast.
KKPS has trimmed its profit estimates for BCH for 2026 and 2027 by 4-6%, reflecting the hospital’s latest operational guidance. As a result, the analyst has set a new price target for BCH at THB 14.0 per share, down slightly from the previous THB 14.5.
Nonetheless, a ‘Buy’ rating is reiterated, citing expected operational improvements this year and further upside potential from both the anticipated SSO payment rate hike and a recovery in Middle East patient flows—contingent on a swift end to the current regional conflict.
BCH remains attractively valued at 18x 2026 P/E, with management noting the possibility of a special dividend payable alongside the interim dividend after the announcement of 2Q26 results. This could provide an additional boost to the current dividend yield forecast of 3.9% for 2026. However, the income rating has been revised down from 8 to 7, reflecting an expectation of lower dividend payments over the coming year.
Notably, KKPS projects BCH’s net profit at THB 1.36 billion in 2026, THB 1.48 billion in 2027, and THB 1.61 billion in 2028.
