InnovestX Securities wrote that same-store sales (SSS) for major retail companies showed a narrower year-on-year decline of 2% in March to date, compared with a drop of 4% in January and February. The improvement was mainly attributed to four factors:
- Higher temperatures drove increased purchases of beverages (CPALL) and home appliances (HMPRO).
- Consumer stockpiling amid concerns about potential product shortages or price hikes, due to geopolitical risks, boosted sales at cash & carry and hypermarket operators (CPAXT, BJC).
- A moderate pickup in government investment supported building materials retailers (DOHOME).
- The boost from last year’s high sales base—driven by the E-Receipt program in January–February 2025—had faded (CRC, HMPRO).
Product supply management remains stable overall, with only minor delivery delays reported at a few firms due to additional time required for fuel refilling. However, there have been no serious supply disruptions.
Most product prices have remained steady, with steel prices seeing a slight uptick, while prices for plastic construction materials have been largely unchanged. So far, increased shipping costs have had a limited impact, but there is ongoing monitoring of future electricity expenses.
Concerning transportation, the expected short-term increase in diesel costs appears likely to have only a limited effect on retail companies. Generally, the expense of transporting goods from suppliers to distribution centers can be passed on to suppliers—except for CPALL—while retailers bear the cost of moving goods from distribution centers or branches to customers. Companies have prepared responses, such as raising minimum order thresholds for delivery or adjusting sales prices, should diesel prices rise significantly.
On electricity, Thailand’s electricity price is set at THB 3.88 per unit for January–April 2026. Based on the Energy Regulatory Commission’s latest statements and deliberations, there is a strong likelihood that the government will continue to cap or subsidize electricity rates for May–August 2026, to cushion the effects of higher global energy costs.
If the full-year 2026 electricity price increases 8–13% from the base of THB 3.88 per unit to THB 4.2–4.4 (assuming the rate holds steady through August and is then revised upward for September–December), InnovestX estimates this would reduce profits across the retail sector by roughly 3–4%. BJC and CPAXT are projected to be most affected, while HMPRO and GLOBAL would face the least impact.
Top stock picks highlighted are CPALL, HMPRO, and GLOBAL. CPALL stands out with the strongest first-quarter 2026 earnings outlook in the retail group, being the only company expected to grow profit both sequentially and year-on-year, driven by robust sales and improved convenience store margins. HMPRO and GLOBAL are also favored, with SSS likely to rebound in the second quarter of 2026, after a sharp year-on-year contraction in 2Q25 due to unfavorable weather.
