Phillip Securities (Thailand) expects Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited (SET: BAY) to report a net profit of THB 7.3 billion for the first quarter of 2026, representing a 2.9% year-on-year decline.
The decrease is attributed to higher provisions and increased expenses, despite anticipated growth in both net interest income and fee income. However, when compared to the previous quarter, the profit is expected to rise by 2.7%, as both provisions and expenses are forecasted to decrease.
The brokerage also notes that BAY’s loan portfolio is anticipated to continue contracting, with a projected 2.5% quarter-on-quarter decline, which is a steeper contraction than the previous quarter’s 1% drop. The decline in lending could potentially drive the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio back up, following the reduction in NPLs to 3.26% in the previous quarter.
Phillip Securities maintains its full-year 2026 net profit forecast for BAY at THB 31 billion, a 3.7% year-on-year decrease, mainly due to expected declines in gains from financial instruments and investment activities.
Given prospects for international expansion, the brokerage continues to recommend a ‘Gradual Accumulation’ on the company and a fair value of THB 28 per share, leaving a reasonable upside potential.
