Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, during the “Kaohoon” program on March 23, 2025, set the support level for the SET Index at 1,410 – 1,400 points, and a resistance level of 1,440 for today’s session. He noted that the market moved with volatility, as it has a high proportion of energy and petrochemical stocks.
Regarding fundflows, Mr. Pobchai expects the fund inflows to continue with limited volume, as investors adopted the wait-and-see strategy and opting to hold cash amid the Middle East conflict and Thailand’s political development.
The weaker inflows volume stems from the Thai market’s limited upside, and weaker baht, which dipped below THB 33 per US dollar this morning. Furthermore, most Thai stocks have either paid dividend or reached ex-dividend (XD) date, which also hampered the Thai market attractiveness.
Mr. Pobchai added that the strengthening of the US dollar, which has been reconsidered as a safe-haven investment following the earlier decline, has pressured other assets including stocks, gold, and bonds, especially since the prospect of central banks’ rate cuts has declined.
Mr. Pobchai forecasted that the Iran war may possibly be protracted to as far as the middle of the year, which will negatively affect the U.S. budget that has ballooned to more than $10 billion during the first six days of the conflict. Moreover, the U.S. Department of War has recently requested an additional $200 billion for the war effort. Additionally, the war will also affect U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating amid the upcoming mid-term election this November.
In a scenario where the average oil prices are above $100 per barrel in 2026, the Thai GDP may decrease from the estimated 1.7% to 1%. For listed companies’ profitability, earnings per share (EPS) may decrease from pre-war estimated THB 95 to THB 91. If the Thai market continued to trade at the pre-war price-to-earning (P/E) ratio of 16x, the SET Index may potentially rise to 1,450 points or near the current level, but if the market is trading at P/E ratio of 14x, the index may potentially decline to 1,275 points.
For strategy, Mr. Pobchai recommends risk-averse investors to either hold cash or bonds in the short-term. Investors with appetite for risk should focus on short-term speculative move on stock that benefited from surging oil prices including PTTEP, BANPU, TTA, and PRM, stocks with high-value asset or high pricing power such as ADVANC, TRUE, CPALL, BJC, BCH, and CHG, as well as stocks with high dividend yield and has a XD date on April and May such as KTB, KBANK, TISCO, and AP.
