Krungsri Securities (KSS) reported that in the week ending March 20, 2026, commodity markets saw notable movements across agricultural, livestock, and meat sectors, with varied performance among key commodities and notable implications for investor sentiment within the sector.
Sugar prices advanced by 3.3% week-on-week, KSS stated. The uptick was largely driven by sugar mills shifting their production focus toward ethanol manufacturing, thereby tightening the available sugar supply in the market.
Crude palm oil prices also edged higher, rising 1.7% WoW, supported by increased demand for palm-based biodiesel. Conversely, soybean prices declined by 4.2% over the same period. The drop was attributed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations—a critical factor that continues to cloud the outlook for Chinese soybean demand.
In the rubber market, prices fell by 2.7% week-on-week, reflecting softening demand from China, often a bellwether indicator for broader industrial commodity consumption in Asia.
The livestock segment saw divergent trends between chicken and pork. Live chicken prices remained flat at THB 40.5 per kilogram, consistent with balanced supply and demand conditions and a production cost of THB 36 per kilogram.
In contrast, the swine market experienced notable gains. Thai swine prices surged by 6.5% WoW to THB 65.5 per kilogram, up for the second consecutive week, as large-scale farms implemented supply control measures alongside rising production costs. Similarly, Vietnamese swine prices climbed 4.2% to VND 66,167 per kilogram, or THB 79.4, driven by a renewed outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF), which has tightened regional supply.
Meanwhile, Chinese swine prices continued to decline, slipping by 1% to CNY 10.04, or THB 45.48 per kilogram—remaining below the production cost of CNY 13.5—due to oversupply conditions set against contracting demand.
Reflecting on these trends, KSS maintained a “Bearish” sector weighting, citing a more cautious outlook for the land-based livestock industry following what is believed to be a cyclical earnings peak in the first half of 2025. With no clear positive catalysts on the horizon, prospects for a swift sector turnaround appear limited.
Despite mounting concerns around rising freight and energy costs amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, KSS continue to highlight i-Tail Corporation PCL (SET: ITC) as their top pick in the sector, recommending “Buy” with a target price of THB 20.
ITC’s revenues are entirely FOB-based, shielding the company from global freight cost fluctuations. Its robust and stable gross profit margin (GPM) also sets it apart from sector peers, as ITC bears no exposure to the volatility of farm-gate meat prices—a key advantage in the current market environment.
