Mr. Koraphat Vorachet, Assistant Director and Division Head of Research at Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated in the “Kaohoon” program on May 7, 2026, that the overall picture of the Thai stock market is starting to show positive signals. This is supported by the easing of Middle East tensions, following negotiations between the United States and Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Mr. Koraphat mentioned the third draft of the proposal, which includes the suspension of uranium development for 12-15 years, along with the condition to move the mineral out of Iran. This has led to a de-escalation in tensions, serving as a positive factor for risky assets, with crude oil prices dropping to around $100 per barrel.
Domestically, the overall listed companies’ earnings have outperformed market expectations by up to 13%, leading to a continual upward revision of the market’s Earnings Per Share (EPS) to THB 97.5 from the initial THB 94 forecast at the start of the year, driven by the energy sector, which has benefited from heightened oil prices and improved petrochemical spreads.
Additionally, the Thai economic outlook receives further support from the surge in investment promotion applications (BOI), reaching THB 1.87 trillion, a 60-70% increase year-on-year. Moody’s has assessed that Thailand and India are the two emerging market countries best positioned to adapt, with strong balance sheets and liquidity to support the new investment cycle.
As for fund inflows, there has been strong NVDR buying, particularly in energy stocks such as PTTEP and PTT. This is due to the view that the energy, refinery, and petrochemical industries remain in an upcycle driven by tight supply, which may persist for 1.5-3 years, as well as the easing of export bans on fuels by the Department of Energy Business. This will also benefit refineries such as TOP, PTTGC, BCP, and PTT.
For investment strategy, KSS recommends small power producers’ (SPP) stocks which benefit from lower natural gas costs in line with Europe’s trend, highlighting GPSC and BGRIM as top picks.
The industrial estate group is recommended as it directly benefits from new investments, such as AMATA, and the ICT group, which will gain from global tech companies’ data center investments, notably TikTok, led by TRUE and ADVANC. These investment flows are driving Asia into a new Capex Cycle, similar to the period of 2004-2005.
Mr. Koraphat concluded with a target for the SET Index, stating that although current GDP growth is only 1.4-1.5%, if adding the effects of the 400-billion-baht loan decree, it could further support economic growth by 0.5-0.7 percentage points.
With the current market EPS at THB 97.5, the P/E ratio stands at only 15.5 times (excluding DELTA, it drops to 14 times), which is below the historical average of 17.5 times. Therefore, KSS maintains the SET Index target at 1,600 points, viewing it as achievable amid strong political stability, corporate earnings recovery, and the return of foreign investment to the Asian region.
