Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,397.34 points, decreased 35.65 points or 2.49%, with a trading value of THB 61.49 billion. The analyst stated that the Thai market plunged more than 2% due to the prolonged Middle East war, which raised concerns over surging oil prices and intensifying inflation, potentially affecting the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. This caused investors to adopt the wait-and-see strategy.
For tomorrow, the analyst expects the Thai market to potentially rebound with limited upside.
The Office of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) prepares to present the new round of the Fuel Adjustment Tariff (Ft) guidelines to the ERC committee meeting on March 25, before making an official announcement. The regulator revealed that the unrest in the Middle East has caused spot market Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) prices to rise to around $25 per million BTU, causing Thailand’s electricity production costs to trend higher and affecting the calculation of the Ft for the period May–August 2026.
TRIS Rating has maintained a base-case GDP growth forecast of 2.1%, but a prolonged conflict could slash this growth to as low as 1.0%. The severity of the impact hinges largely on the duration of the crisis; a three-month disruption might slow growth to 1.8%, while a six-month conflict presents a much bleaker economic trajectory at 1.0% growth.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East presents a serious risk to the global economy, with IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasizing that no country would escape the consequences if the crisis persists. According to Birol, disruptions caused by the conflict have exceeded those of the 1970s oil crises, as well as the gas supply issues stemming from the Russia–Ukraine war. He noted that the war resulted in severe or extensive impacts to more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the region.
