On March 23, the Stock Exchange of Thailand index (SET Index) closed at 1,397.34, marking a decline of 35.65 points, or 2.49%, with a trading value of THB 61.49 billion. Foreign investors recorded a net sell position of THB 6.26 billion, while institutional investors posted net sales of THB 2.78 billion. Proprietary trading accounted for a net buying of THB 72 million, and domestic retail investors were net buyers of THB 8.97 billion.
According to Asia Plus Securities, pressures from escalating tensions in the Middle East drove the market sharply lower as the situation has yet to show signs of stability, with particular concerns surrounding President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran.
The U.S. gave Iran a 48-hour deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz and threatened strikes on energy and power infrastructure should Iran not comply. These geopolitical risks led to broad selloffs, pushing the SET Index below the 1,400-point level.
The break below this key threshold is considered a bearish signal for sentiment. Should the conflict persist, and the index continues to fall, the next support is seen near 1,350 points.
At that level, the brokerage noted it could present entry points for selective accumulation, highlighting companies such as Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF) and True Corporation (TRUE). In contrast, caution is raised in the banking sector, suggesting that short-term trades should be avoided and positions should only be started for long-term investment.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) forecasts that the SET Index is likely to fluctuate within a support range of 1,380 points and resistance at 1,420 points on March 24, with the geopolitical conflict’s impact on oil prices remaining a key topic to be monitored.
Short-term oil price gains may benefit certain stocks, but sustained high prices could weigh on the wider economy. Meanwhile, market volatility has begun to ease compared to previous periods and is lower than in other Asian markets.
For investment strategy, Krungsri recommends focusing on turnaround stocks such as Indorama Ventures (IVL) and PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC), citing that rising oil prices provide upside as buyers accelerate petrochemical purchases before prices grow even higher.
Bualuang Securities (BLS) commented that while the Middle East situation remains fragile, earnings revisions across the market in March were stable to slightly positive, rising by 0.1%. This indicates that the war has not depressed aggregate earnings, but rather produced clear winners and losers.
The beneficiaries include firms exposed to higher energy prices or able to pass on costs, led by energy upstream and refining groups. Over the past month, profit forecasts for names such as PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP), Thai Oil (TOP), Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC), and PTT were lifted by 2.8%.
Agriculture stocks also outperformed, with profit upgrades of 12.2% driven by higher commodity prices, supporting companies like Sri Trang Agro-Industry (STA), Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) (STGT), Thaifoods Group (TFG), and Betagro (BTG), which benefit as selling prices rise faster than costs.
Petrochemical names demonstrating cost flexibility, such as PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC), started to see upside from supply disruptions, supporting product price spreads.
Stable-income companies such as True Corporation (TRUE) and Central Pattana (CPN), as well as industrial estate developers WHA Corporation (WHA) and Amata Corporation (AMATA), continue to show resilience. Digital infrastructure and electronics groups—including Delta Electronics (Thailand) (DELTA), Gulf Development (GULF), and Com7 (COM7)—are maintaining growth momentum despite the conflict.
On the other hand, energy-intensive businesses that are unable to adjust prices are coming under pressure. The losers include beverage manufacturers like Carabao Group (CBG), small power producers such as B.Grimm Power (BGRIM), building materials firms like Siam City Cement (SCCC), and fuel retailers such as PTG Energy (PTG), whose margins are squeezed by fixed pricing structures.
Additionally, companies sensitive to domestic purchasing power also face challenges. This includes retailers such as DoHome (DOHOME), CP Axtra (CPAXT), Central Retail Corporation (CRC), and property developers like Pruksa Holding (PSH) and L.P.N. Development (LPN), reflecting the weakness at the lower end of the consumer segment.
The analyst remarked that the market is not broadly in a downtrend, but is undergoing a period of active sector rotation. Companies demonstrating flexible cost structures, pricing power, or strong local revenues have been able to withstand the volatility. In contrast, those grappling with rising costs and limited pricing ability are facing dual pressures in the current environment.
