Iran has issued warnings that it may shut access to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital international shipping lane, should the United States move forward with a ground assault on Kharg Island. This escalation comes as the island remains essential to Iran’s oil sector, handling the vast majority of the nation’s crude export operations.
Oil prices rose on Thursday with the international benchmark Brent crude rose 1.68% to $103.94 a barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate gained 1.55% to $91.72 per barrel.
Iranian authorities have indicated that, in addition to measures already taken at the Strait of Hormuz—which is responsible for delivering approximately a fifth of worldwide oil shipments—they would consider additional actions to complicate U.S. military operations. The commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has stated that Tehran is prepared to increase pressure and raise U.S. costs by targeting further maritime access points.
Bab al-Mandeb, connecting the Arabian Sea with the Red Sea, plays a central role in facilitating around 10% of global maritime shipments, representing trade worth about $1 trillion annually. Any obstruction at this location, combined with existing disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, would place substantial volumes of seaborne commerce under the influence of Iranian forces and associated groups such as the Houthis in Yemen.
The U.S. has responded by dispatching military assets to the region, including a contingent of 2,500 Marines and potentially 3,000 elite soldiers from its Airborne divisions. President Donald Trump has outlined a 15-point plan proposing peace terms that require, among other conditions, the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear initiatives and an end to its proxy activities in neighboring countries. Iranian officials have rejected these terms, characterizing them as one-sided negotiations.
A blockade of Bab al-Mandeb would severely disrupt the movement of about 10 million barrels of oil per day, alongside large volumes of liquefied natural gas and essential food products. Growing Houthi military presence along the Yemeni shore further elevates risks for shipping and could lead to surging global energy prices. The standoff has introduced significant uncertainty into the international trade system, with both nations increasing their rhetorical and military preparedness.
