The Thai Cabinet is set to discuss key economic stimulus measures on April 21, 2026, including the ‘Half-Half Plus’ scheme, government support for clean energy (Solar Cell/EV), and the ‘Old Car Trade-in’ scheme, aimed at cushioning the nation’s economy from further slowdown.
Previously, Mr. Lavaron Sangsnit, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, stated that the Half-Half Plus scheme could be tabled at the upcoming Cabinet meeting on April 21. The final budget allocation for the program awaits government approval; however, implementation is expected to begin in May 2026.
The program will likely be expanded beyond its previous scope of 20 million beneficiaries to cover a broader segment of the population affected by current economic challenges. The extent of coverage will depend on the Budget Bureau’s ability to secure additional funding.
According to current Central Accounting Department figures, as reported by Mr. Lavaron, approximately THB 84 billion may be eligible for reallocation via royal decree. This figure is gradually diminishing as ongoing government projects continue to commit funds. He emphasized the urgency of timely action, indicating that a royal decree would expedite the process compared to the legislative route.
Asia Plus Securities (ASP) wrote that this week (April 20–26) represents a critical period for the Thai economy, with market focus on the April 21 Cabinet meeting and the potential approval of new stimulus packages.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s trade data for March 2026 is anticipated to indicate a continued trade deficit, pressured by persistently high energy costs and oil prices. Export growth remains concentrated in a few sectors, notably electronics and computers, exacerbating depreciation pressure on the baht due to the negative trade balance.
In the equity market, while U.S. indices such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have reached new all-time highs following the easing of war-related sentiment, technical indications—such as the RSI entering the overbought zone—signal market fragility and suggest that a correction or consolidation may be imminent in the short term.
Domestically, the Thai equity market continues to see significant outflows from foreign investors. Nevertheless, Asia Plus recommends a selective investing approach, specifically favoring stocks with a historically strong performance during periods of conflict de-escalation, as referenced by 2022 data. These include PR9, DELTA, TFG, BGRIM, BDMS, EGCO, BBL, SCC, CBG, BH, BCH, and AOT.
Asia Plus further recommends investors monitor government economic policy decisions, as Cabinet approval of additional stimulus measures could bolster domestic confidence and alleviate downside risks during a period of global trade uncertainty and potential weakness in the baht.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) projects that Thailand’s SET Index will likely trend sideways to sideways-down within a 1,480–1,500 point range. Although the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is seen as a positive development, market sentiment remains cautious, with continued focus on ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations scheduled for April 20–24 to determine whether the ceasefire will be extended and peace talks will proceed.
As market participants are closely tracking economic support policies amidst high fuel prices, the Ministry of Finance is reportedly preparing to raise the public debt ceiling from the current maximum of 70% of GDP. Meanwhile, the banking sector is expected to report Q1 2026 earnings during the week, providing key indicators for real-sector equities.
On the investment strategy front, Finansia recommends a barbell approach, combining stocks with low inflation and energy cost risk with those likely to benefit if geopolitical tensions dissipate. Highlighted stocks include CPALL, CPF, GULF, KTB, and PRM.
Overall, the market is currently in a holding pattern, awaiting further clarity on Middle East developments and oil price direction, while continued volatility in DELTA remains a key driver of index fluctuations. As such, most brokers continue to advocate for selective, cautious portfolio management in the near term.
