Mr. Gun Hathaisattha, Economist and Head of Investment Strategy (Retail) at CGS International Securities (Thailand) (CGSI), stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on April 20, 2026, that the Thai stock market is seen as having potential for recovery as its structure remains stronger compared to many other countries, especially during periods of heightened geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran.
A key reason for this resilience is the significant weighting of energy and refinery stocks within the Thai market. Elevated oil prices have therefore had a positive impact on the earnings outlook for some listed companies. CGSI observes that the recent increase in oil prices has been at a moderate level, which supports overall market earnings trends and underpins the upward revision of the SET Index target to 1,560 points.
Although the Thai bourse sometimes moves out of sync with other global markets, Mr. Gun explained that this divergence is due to different market compositions. In times of global uncertainty, Thai equities are often categorized as value plays, in contrast to the growth stocks prevalent in U.S. markets or other higher-risk assets.
Nonetheless, short-term pressures remain from sell-offs in several large-cap groups, particularly banking, telecommunications, and Delta Electronics (Thailand) (DELTA), all of which have a considerable influence on the index.
Banking stocks, in particular, continue to face concerns regarding increased provisions for expected credit losses, following risks arising from energy prices and a challenging economic outlook that may pose additional burdens on both households and businesses.
According to CGSI, the 1Q26 financial results of commercial banks are unlikely to fully reflect the impact of the Middle East conflict, as most of the material effects began to emerge toward the end of the quarter. Clearer impacts are expected to be seen in 2Q26 and beyond.
Regarding investment strategy, CGSI continues to see value in banking stocks for short- to medium-term investors seeking dividend plays, recommending a wait-and-see approach until after the ex-dividend date to accumulate further positions.
For medium- to long-term investment, the brokerage maintains a positive outlook on Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS). The company’s share price has dropped more than 30%, from THB 25.00 to around THB 18.00, which CGSI considers excessively discounted and thus presents an accumulation opportunity.
In contrast, recommendations are against overweighting stocks closely tied to the domestic grassroots economy, such as retail, property, and finance sectors, as Thai consumer purchasing power has yet to show clear signs of recovery. Additionally, these sectors continue to feel the pressure from the high cost of living, particularly elevated energy costs.
Touching on government stimulus measures—such as the ‘Half-Half’ co-payment scheme—CGSI views these as drivers of short-term investment sentiment rather than fundamentals. The brokerage believes that any injected liquidity may be offset by increased energy expenses, making these themes more appropriate for speculative short-term trading rather than sustained price-chasing investments.
