Phillip Securities (Thailand) stated in its analysis on Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG), projecting a net profit recovery on a quarter-on-quarter basis but a decline year-on-year for the first quarter of 2026.
The brokerage estimates CBG’s net profit for 1Q26 at THB 653 million, representing a 13.3% decrease year-on-year but a significant 366.2% increase quarter-on-quarter. The notable QoQ rebound is due to the absence of extraordinary items, specifically last quarter’s recognition of a goodwill impairment loss.
Total sales in 1Q26 are expected to remain stable year-on-year, underpinned by several factors: mid-single-digit growth from the Carabao business in Thailand, mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in contract manufacturing operations, and double-digit year-on-year growth in the distribution business.
However, the packaging business is anticipated to experience a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year. The company’s international segment is projected to see a sharp year-on-year contraction, primarily due to the loss of revenues from Cambodia.
Nevertheless, quarter-on-quarter performance in overseas sales is expected to improve, supported by the Myanmar plant’s commencement of full-scale production during the quarter.
Looking ahead, Phillip forecasts CBG’s net profit for 2026 to reach THB 2.71 billion, an increase of 17.4% year-on-year. This positive outlook is based on expectations for continued growth in domestic operations and strong momentum in the distribution business.
The brokerage sets the target price at THB 43.25 per share on CBG, representing a 16% upside from the current trading price, and reiterates its ‘Buy’ recommendation.
